Chief Economist Gives Local Insight at Torrey Pines Bank Event

Chief Economist Dr. Lynn Reaser, spoke to a room full of local business leaders at the Scottish Rite Center in Oakland about the aftermath of the fiscal cliff, interest rates, global markets, insurance/healthcare and the stock market. The event, hosted by Torrey Pines Bank in January, was part of the bank's Aventine Network Series, which was designed to pay homage to Aventine Hill, a strategic point for controlling trade and commerce on the river Tiber in ancient Rome.

The series was an exclusive opportunity for local business leaders to meet and discuss strategies critical for winning in today’s complex and competitive markets. Dr. Reaser shared the following insights with Oakland's businessmen and women.

• The U.S. economy should see better growth as 2013 proceeds with the assumed resolution of critical budget issues, aggressive support by the Federal Reserve, and healing of household balance sheets.
• California is outperforming the nation in terms of job growth and should see further gains across various sectors in 2013. The unemployment rate should ease to a still high level of around 9.0%.
• The state’s fiscal position is gradually improving due to the economic recovery and voter approved tax increases. The Governor’s proposed budget shows the 2013-14 General Fund ending with a reserve of $1.0 billion. Unfunded health and retirement benefits still amount to over $180 billion.
• The Bay Area’s economy continues to recover with core support from the distribution, homebuilding, healthcare and international trade sectors.
• Key drivers for the area in 2013 will include: Web design, electronics manufacturing, telecommunications, housing, health services.
• Housing in the area is beginning to rebound, with home prices increasing by about 30% in San Mateo, 27% in Santa Clara, 23% in Contra Costa, and 22% in San Francisco from a year ago.
• Job gains will continue in the area in 2013, which should help push the jobless rate down by the end of the year.
• Given potential changes in government spending and taxes along with other uncertainties, Bay Area business owners should prepare budget contingencies.  Other priorities for 2013 should be to refinance business and personal loans, align employee incentives and goals, look to innovate out of their “comfort zones” and become mentors to others in the area.

As a professional economist, Dr. Reaser brings extensive experience in the financial services sector along with a keen ability to translate complex economic issues into understandable language with relevant and actionable implications.

Currently, Dr. Reaser is currently a member of the Point Loma Nazarene University's School of Business faculty, teaching managerial economics in the MBA program. She is also the chief economist of the Council of Economic Advisors for California State Controller John Chiang, and is a participating economist in the S & P/Case–Shiller Real Estate Index and many other leading economic gauges and surveys. Dr. Reaser holds a B.A. in economics (cum laude) and an M.A. and Ph.D. in economics, all from the University of California, Los Angeles.