CT Coronavirus Peak Is Likely Soon, New Projection Shows

CONNECTICUT — A coronavirus projection model used by the White House issued an update about when the new coronavirus is expected to peak in Connecticut and how many people could die.

As of Wednesday, the influential model, developed by the Institute for Health Metrics, now predicts COVID-19 will kill 4,000 residents in Connecticut. That's a big change over the 5,500 death toll forecast on Monday.

IHM also predicts the coronavirus outbreak will peak on April 22 in Connecticut, estimating growing death tolls up to 138 per day until the top of that bell curve is reached. On the other side of the graph, the researchers show the deaths per day trending downward into the beginning of June, when they cease. Connecticut's peak is projected to come one week after the timeframe predicted for the national peak. Another 71 new COVID-19 deaths were reported in Connecticut on Tuesday, bringing the total to 277.

The analysis, which The Washington Post called "America’s most influential coronavirus model," is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The institute based its updated projections using the expected peak of infections in each state and the number of hospital beds, number of intensive-care beds, and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed. The full analysis is available online here.

The analysis is forecasting a 4,967 hospital bed shortage, and a 1,258 intensive care unit bed shortage, throughout Connecticut on "peak day," April 22. Amy Forni, a spokeswoman for Nuvance Health, which operates hospitals in Danbury, New Milford, Norwalk, and Sharon, as well as in New York, acknowledged it was an evolving situation. "But as of right now, Nuvance Health’s seven hospitals continue to have adequate capacity for patients."

Alongside the City of Danbury, CT Department of Public Health, CT Division of Emergency Management and Homeland Security, and CT National Guard, Nuvance has already established two field hospitals to handle patient overflow. Gov. Lamont's Office declined to comment.

Appearing as a guest on CNN's "The Situation Room" Tuesday evening, Lamont told host Wolf Blitzer that "Our hospitalizations are beginning to flatten out, in terms of the rate of increase, and that's invaluable to protect the capacity in our hospitals."

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The institute's predictions, which have been referenced by members of the White House to determine the national reaction, indicate the national coronavirus infection peak would come in mid-April, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 36,000 short of the supply and the supply of intensive-care beds would fall short by nearly 16,000.

On the peak day of April 15, the model estimates there will be more than 3,100 deaths nationwide. More than 81,000 deaths are likely across America by August. The model's low estimate of deaths across the country is 50,000; the high estimate is 136,000.

See also: CT Coronavirus Updates: New Workplace Rules Ordered By Lamont

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Despite these numbers, some leaders say the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is painting an overly rosy estimate of the likely future of the crisis. The analysis conflicts with many others showing higher death rates and more drastic equipment shortages, the Washington Post reported Tuesday, noting some state leaders are growing "increasingly concerned" about how the federal government's usage of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s "lower estimates."

The authors of the research article containing the findings wrote that its estimate of 81 thousand deaths over the next four months "is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."

In making projections for individual states, the institute took note of whether and when the states issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans. Connecticut has not imposed any travel bans, but on Tuesday Gov. Lamont tightened regulations for businesses that remain open during the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, has said the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19."We're going to have millions of cases," Fauci said during an appearance on CNN's "State of the Union." Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noted that projections are subject to change, given that the disease's outbreak is "such a moving target."