Total Coronavirus Cases In DC Could Reach 93,000

WASHINGTON, DC — The total number of District residents who may become infected by the new coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, could reach 93,000 over the course of the pandemic, based on data modeling used by D.C. health officials. In addition, the surge in COVID-19 patients at city hospitals is expected to peak at the end of June and beginning of July.

"I want to be clear that this number is cumulative, and that does not mean on any specific day that 93,000 residents have COVID-19 at the same time," said Mayor Muriel Bowser, who shared these numbers with D.C. City Council members Friday morning at modified Mayor-Council breakfast at the D.C. Armory. "This number represents those people who have been affected and recovered, as well."

For planning purposes, the District is using the CHIME model, which makes projections based on total infections and assumes a certain level of random mixing among infected people.

"What is important to remember is that the models just help us plan for the future, but we are constantly assessing what is actually happening," Bowser said.

Using CHIME modeling, health officials are also able to predict how many District residents may die from the coronavirus over the course of the pandemic.

"The mild estimate is 220 would succumb to the disease, a moderate would be 440 and the severe estimate would be more than 1,000 people," she said. "Looking at these numbers, I cannot emphasize the importance of everyone staying at home. We know that it flattens the curve and it will save lives."

D.C. Health is also using CHIME modeling to predict when the city can expect a surge in patients, so that healthcare providers and hospitals can prepare ahead of time to have the equipment and resources they need to meet the surge.

"This has us reaching our peak cases and hospitalizations somewhere around the end of June and the beginning of July. ... At our peak, the demand for hospital bids will be greater than our current supply," Bowser said. "At our peak, we will need 3,000 acute care beds and about 2,800 ICU beds."

After conferring with D.C. Health officials, homeland security professionals and the city's hospitals, Bowser confirmed that the District needs to increase its capacity to 125 percent of its current beds. So far, the city has identified three-quarters of that needed capacity.

Bowser outlined how the District was going to help the city's healthcare system to get the 5,500 beds it will need to meet the peak of the surge.

"Number one, we're going to increase hospital space by postponing elective procedures and that's already happened," she said. "Number two, we're going to maximize existing hospital space, expand capacity in existing healthcare facilities by using other available space and adding beds. Number three, by reopening facilities, opening furloughed healthcare facilities. We are working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to do exactly that. Number four, by adding new beds, this means establishing alternate care sites outside of hospitals. And number five, adding staff by coordinating with the D.C. National Guard and FEMA for necessary workforce."

According to Bowser, the city is continuing to work its supply chains to obtain the necessary supplies to meet the growing number of patients. However, to support 5,500 beds, the city also needs to obtain an additional:

• 1,000 ventilators
• 600,000 N-95 masks
• 5.6 million surgical masks
• 1.4 million gowns
• 350,000 face shields
• 40 million gloves.

"When we look at those numbers, it bears repeating that everybody needs to stay home, because we can drive down the number of infections, hospitalizations and demand for very, very precious PPE (personal protective equipment)," Bowser said.

Earlier in the day, the city confirmed three more deaths due to the coronavirus, bringing the total number of deaths of District residents to 15. D.C. Health also confirmed 104 new cases of positive tests for the COVID-19 in the District. This brings the overall number of positive cases among District residents to be 757.

Testing in for the coronavirus in the District has grown from about 300 tests per 1 million people on March 18 to 4,000 tests per million people just 10 days later. On Friday morning, a screening facility at the United Medical Center began testing patients. Going forward it will be open for testing on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday as a drive-thru or walk-up site. However, only patients who have an appointment will be tested.

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