2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released By CSU Researchers

FORT COLLINS, CO — Researchers at Colorado State University are predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, citing the likely development of El Niño as the primary reason.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team is predicting 13 named storms during the Atlantic
hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30, according to a news release from the university.

Of those, researchers said they expect six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater. Researchers are also predicting 55 named storm days, 25 hurricane days and five major hurricane days in the Atlantic basin.

To compile the forecast, researchers use a combination of statistical models and four decades of historical data, including Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear levels, and more.

According to researchers, this year's forecast is slightly below average but higher than the 2022 season, which saw two significant hurricanes, Fiona and Ian. Fiona was the first major hurricane that hit Puerto Rico and caused substantial flooding. Ian made landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, killing more than 150 people and causing $113 billion in damage.

Most of the Hurricane Ian victims in Florida were in coastal communities where dozens of residents drowned in storm surge as seawater swamped their vehicles or inundated their homes, NBC News said. Ian was one of the deadliest hurricanes to hit the U.S. in the past 20 years, the network said.

Florida District Medical Examiners reported 131 deaths attributed to Hurricane Ian.

Current weather conditions indicate that a transition to El Niño is "relatively likely" in the next several months, according to the forecast, which could contribute to the below-average season.

Related:

• 2023 Hurricane, Tropical Storm Names Released For Atlantic Season
• 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What It Means In Florida

"However, there is considerable uncertainty as to how strong El Niño would be if it does develop," the forecast says. "El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. The increased upper-level winds result in vertical wind shear, which can tear apart hurricanes as they try to form."

Still, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are much warmer than usual, according to the forecast, meaning the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season could be average or above average if El Niño does not fully develop.

"Given the conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Niño and an anomalously warm
tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal
with this outlook," the forecast says.

The forecast also predicts a 22 percent chance of a hurricane making landfall on Florida's east coast and a 28 percent chance of one hitting Florida's Gulf coast. The average is 21 and 27 percent, respectively.

Researchers plan to release forecast updates on June 1, July 6 and Aug. 3.