In partnership withT-Mobile
Sports

Can Cubs Overcome 3-1 World Series Deficit? Yes, But History's Not on Their Side

PLUS: Northbrook's Jason Kipnis is living his childhood dream … sorta | How to watch Game 5 on TV and online | Tips going to the ballpark.

Joe Vince's profile picture
Joe Vince, Patch StaffVerified Patch Staff Badge
|

For the first time since 1945, the Chicago Cubs are four wins away from the promised land: a World Series title. But to get there, the Cubs must face the Cleveland Indians, the American League champions who have home-field advantage in the series thanks to the AL's victory in the All-Star Game. Here's your quick guide to what you need to know before the first pitch of Game 5 is thrown.

2016 World Series: Cubs vs. Indians

Cleveland leads the best-of-seven series, 3-1. Check out the Game 4 recap.

GAME 5

First Pitch: 7:08 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 30

Where: Wrigley Field

TV | Radio | Streaming: Fox 32 Chicago (WFLD-TV) | 670 the Score (WSCR-AM), ESPNRadio 1000 (WMVP-AM) | Fox Sports Go

Pitching Matchup: Jon Lester (2-1, 1.69 ERA) vs. Trevor Bauer (0-1, 5.00 ERA)

Series Schedule

  • Game 6*: 7:08 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 1
  • Game 7*: 7:08 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 2

*if necessary

Cubs Stats/History/Trivia Etc.

There's been only one question on the mind of every Cubs fan since Game 4 ended: How likely is it that Chicago overcomes its 3-1 deficit to win the World Series? Let's look at some of the numbers:

  • 12.5 percent: That's the chance the Cubs have of winning three consecutive games, which is the same as a coin being flipped three times and landing on tails all three times.
  • 45: The number of teams that have been down 3-1 in the World Series.
  • 5: That's how many of those 45 teams have been able to come back from that 3-1 deficit in the World Series. The last team to do it was the 1985 Kansas City Royals. The Pittsburgh Pirates have done it twice, in 1929 and in '79. Interestingly, the 1903 Boston Americans also accomplished this feat, but the World Series was a nine-game affair then.
  • 11.1 percent: The odds Chicago wins the final three games of the World Series, given the success rate of past teams in similar spots. That's roughly the same chance they have without taking history into account.

One problem, though: Cleveland is a team that's probably very aware, at least indirectly, of the importance of not underestimating an opponent that's down 3-1 in a series. Manager Terry Francona led the 2004 Boston Red Sox to an American League pennant after his squad was down 3-0 to the New York Yankees in the AL Championship Series. And Cleveland's sports recent sports renaissance started earlier this year when LeBron James and the Cavaliers won an NBA title after falling behind 3-1 to the Golden State Warriors.

In case you're wondering, Las Vegas has the Cubs as +325 underdogs of winning the World Series, according to Odds Sharks. (That means if the Cubs won the game, you would win $325 if you bet $100 on it.) Chicago had been the -190 favorites (you would've had to bet $190 to win $100) going into the series and the +500 favorites at the beginning of the 2016 season.

Kipnis Is Livin' the Dream … Sorta

Hitting a World Series home run in Wrigley Field had been a childhood dream for Northbrook native Jason Kipnis. Except in his dream he was playing for the Chicago Cubs, not the Cleveland Indians.

“I try not to, but the thought is creeping into my mind,” he said. “We still have a very tough victory to get.

"It was a big swing, and it meant a lot to me, and it meant a lot to the team," Kipnis told The New York Times after Game 4 in which he blasted a three-run homer in the seventh inning to pad Cleveland's lead. "A Wrigley home run, a World Series home run — there are so many things I could check off that makes it special for me."

What You Need to Know If You Go to Wrigleyville

More Cubs Coverage on Patch

The Players and Teams

The Fans

Images via Patch archives

Like What You're Reading? Stay Patched In!

Get more local news delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up for free Patch newsletters and alerts.

More from Lakeview