El Niño Summer Forecast: How Hot And Stormy Will It Be In MD?

MARYLAND — Developing El Niño conditions could make it a hot and humid summer in Maryland, according to a new forecast.

The private weather company AccuWeather said the developing climate pattern is expected to bring building heat, rounds of severe weather, and shifting regional patterns across the United States.

Driven by warming ocean waters in the Pacific, the El Niño is likely to strengthen through the summer, influencing temperatures, storm tracks and hurricane activity, AccuWeather said.

In Maryland, AccuWeather predicts peak periods of severe weather will impact the region by July, with temperatures expected to be up to 2 degrees warmer than the overall averages.

Across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, including parts of New York and Pennsylvania, residents will see low chances for tornadoes but periodic stretches of intense heat.

Thunderstorms could also bring localized flooding, but longer dry spells are also possible as storm tracks shift.

In July and August, parts of Maryland are listed as having a moderate risk for a derecho, which is a more powerful wind storm that can cause hurricane-force winds, heavy rains and flash floods.

In June 2012, a derecho left thousands of Marylanders without power for several days after causing about $19 million in damages across several counties. In Montgomery County alone, over 4,800 tons of storm debris were collected.

At the time, a state of emergency was declared by then-Gov. Martin O'Malley as former President Barack Obama released federal aid after declaring a major disaster in the Old Line State.

If you’re traveling this summer, here’s what to expect in the rest of the country:

Across the South and Southeast, frequent thunderstorms and above-average rainfall are expected at times, especially as moisture increases later in the season. However, heat and humidity will still build between storm systems.

The Midwest and Ohio Valley could see a volatile mix of heat and severe weather, including an increased risk of damaging storms during peak summer months as atmospheric patterns become more active.

In the West, especially the Southwest, hot and dry conditions are expected to dominate, raising concerns about drought and wildfire risk as the summer progresses.

The emerging El Niño may also influence the Atlantic hurricane season, which is expected to be near or slightly below average overall due to wind patterns that can disrupt storm formation.

Still, forecasters caution that even a quieter season can produce dangerous storms, and that impacts can vary widely by region.

Globally, scientists say El Niño conditions are likely to develop between late spring and summer, increasing the chances of extreme weather, including heavier rainfall in parts of North America and higher overall temperatures.

AccuWeather meteorologists say the evolving pattern will become more influential as summer progresses, meaning conditions later in the season could look markedly different from early summer.