Anybody But Romney

The Iowa Protest Vote

Romney and Santorum essentially tied in Iowa, with Ron Paul third. I think Santorum is the latest “anybody but Romney” protest vote that will fade away like the others, and Paul is still a long shot, but the Romney camp really needs to wake up.

The polls leading up to the Iowa vote demonstrate that there is a strong “anybody but Romney” protest vote out there. The electorate is dissatisfied with the status quo (and Romney is seen as the status quo). First to surge in the Iowa polls was Michele Bachmann, but her numbers soon tanked. Next to rise and fall were Perry, Cain and then Gingrich (see trend graph above). The latest example is the meteoric climb of Santorum who surged from 4^th to essentially 1^st in the span of a week! ^[a,b,c,d]

Obviously, the heir apparent is out of touch with the electorate. The protest vote will only get stronger and more wayward if the party (and the lead candidate) fails to reach out to disaffected voters. We could see the protest vote move to a third party candidate next, which would mean defeat for Romney. ^[e,f,g,h]

Why the Party System is Broken

The party machine is the reason voters are dissatisfied with the choice of candidates.

The machine doesn’t really care what most voters want; it only cares about winning. To win, the machine must placate the fringes in order to gain a plurality of voters (taking the center for granted). But the fringes aren’t thoughtful or rational; they’re ideological, fanatical and get what they want by holding a gun to the party’s head. This is why the machine favors candidates that appeal to the fringes and not the center (see Nolan chart above). This is why centrist and libertarian candidates, such as Buddy Roemer, Gary Johnson, Jon Huntsman and Ron Paul are personae non gratae to the party machine. ^[i]

What do the Republican fringes (neo-conservatives and social-conservatives) want? They want a neo-imperialist pro-Israeli foreign policy of preemptive wars without end, propping up brutal dictators and “nation building”. They demand to spend other people’s blood and treasure to achieve their imperialist ends by any means necessary, even if it means the poverty of future generations. They want to legislate morality, defend prohibition, control a women’s body and police the bedroom. Tolerance is anathema to the fringe, “the only true conservatives”; all other forms of Republicanism are heresy.

But the voters at the center (most of America) don’t want more war, more debt, and more intrusions on their liberty. The center doesn’t care all that much about how people choose to live their lives, socially, so long as they don’t push their morality (or lack of it) on everyone else. The center is worried instead about the staggering debt, high unemployment, declining property values and the rising cost of living (food, energy, education, healthcare). The center worries about the intrusiveness of the State and financial collapse.

Who amongst the Republican pack appeals to the center?

There is one candidate who is gaining steadily with the center, especially among the under-thirty group, independants and “moderate Democrats”. This is the only candidate who has put forward a serious proposal to end the profligate spending and to balance the budget, to curb the welfare/warfare state, restore sound money, end our ruinous interventionist foreign policy and restore civil liberties. That candidate is Ron Paul, but the neo-con fringe hates him with a passion and will do anything and everything to deceive uneducated voters about his positions and record. ^{[j, k, l, m]}

After Santorum inevitably drops in popularity as the latest “not Mitt” vote, will Ron Paul be the next to rise and fall? 

You don’t get a polished spokesman or a charismatic feel-good message with Paul. His message is anything but simple and upbeat; it’s a serious message about the sad state of affairs in this country and the need to change course. The voters need to educate themselves about the cause of the nation’s troubles before they can even understand the message. That’s quite an impediment, but once the message is understood, voters suddenly realize that Paul is the outsider that they’ve been looking for. It’s why Paul’s supporters are so devoted and why their numbers are steadily growing from the center (in contrast to the meteoric stars that get jerked around by the protest vote).

Why Ron Paul Could be a Game Changer

Prediction is a fool’s game, and the situation is very fluid, but I’m going to step out on a limb here and predict that the race is ultimately going to boil down to Romney and Paul. These two have the organization and funding to run a national campaign. Santorum, Gingrich and Perry are dead-end tickets without a national fund-raising and volunteer organization. It’s all about going the distance to gain delegate clout at the convention.

The significance of the Iowa vote is not just that anti-establishment Ron Paul won nearly 1/5 of the vote in a crowded field, but that Paul won 48% of the under-thirty vote. Many of these young people do not consider themselves Republican, which is the whole point: The existing ideological configuration of U.S. politics doesn’t fit the rising generation. They’re not "Republicans", but they’re voting in a Republican primary. The last time this happened in mass was the so-called “Reagan Democrats” that weren't part of the traditional GOP coalition but whose participation completely remade the party. ^[n]

Paul could be a game changer because he’s an enemy to the political machine (and to the neo-cons who hold it hostage) because he represents a resurgence of the “old conservative” values of limited government, fiscal sanity, just wars, civil liberties, the rule of law, self reliance, sound money and free markets (as opposed to the crony capitalistic model we have). The storyline at the Republican convention may be about how to appease Paul rather than the neo-cons, and in so doing, the GOP will legitimize its “old conservative” base and remake the party. ^[j]

A vote for Paul throws a monkey wrench in the works of the political machine and loosens the grip of the neo-cons who are holding the party hostage. That’s how Ron Paul’s candidacy could change the Republican Party and why voting your principles is not a wasted vote.

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References:

[a] If Romney doesn't reach out pretty soon to the Paul-Perry-Bachmann Republican protest voters, he may never get them. The longer he waits, the more pressure will build for a third-party challenge that will cost him the election. (WSJ)

[b] Voting results at the Iowa Caucus (Google Politics)

[d] Republican election calendar (Wikipedia)

[d] Polling trends in Iowa (Real Clear Politics)

[e] A surprising high number of people are supportive of an independent candidate (Washington Post)

[f] There is a chance that Paul may run on the America elects Party platform (Daily Paul) Ron Paul says that the reason he runs on the Republican ticket is because the system is stacked against a third party, making it nearly impossible to win.

[g] Gary Johnson announces a third party run on the Libertarian ticket (The Daily Caller).

[h] Former NJ Governor Christine Todd Whitman encourages Jon Huntsman to run on the Americans Elect party ticket (Politico) (Buddy Roemer is already a candidate on the AE party ticket)

[i] The Nolan chart reveals that the Coke vs. Pepsi nature of the political system does not reflect reality. The make-up of the electorate is approximately 31% libertarian, 36% centerist, 19% liberal, %8 conservative, 6% statist. Take the World’s Smallest Political Quiz to see where you place on the Nolan Chart.

[j] Why Do GOP Bosses Fear Ron Paul? (NPR)

[k] Why the establishment really fears Ron Paul (Daily Caller)

[l] A guide to the presidential candidates’ proposals to cut spending (CATO@Liberty)

[m] Why Ron Paul is right on Iran, why Michele Bachmann is wrong (Digital Journal)

[n] Iowa Youth Say They're Switching Parties to Support Ron Paul ()