3rd District Race Statistical Tie Between MacArthur And Kim

Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-3) is facing a stiff challenge from Democratic challenger Andy Kim in his re-election bid, a new Stockton University poll finds.

MacArthur garnered 47 percent in a poll of 546 likely voters leading up to the Nov. 6 Congressional election. Forty-five percent favored Kim, making the result a statistical tie. Eight percent were undecided or were not voting for either of the two major party candidates.

MacArthur won the district, which includes parts of Burlington and Ocean counties, by 20 percentage points over Frederick LaVergne in 2016.

Health care and opposition to President Donald Trump and the Republican Congress appear to be the issues propelling Kim in the recent poll, the results of which were released on Monday, Oct. 15.

Men favored MacArthur by 16 percentage points, while women favored Kim by 13 points. Ninety percent of Republicans favored MacArthur, and 87 percent favored Kim. There was a 40-40 split between the two candidates among independent voters.

In Burlington County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 1.5 to 1 countywide, Kim leads by 15 percentage points. In Ocean County, where Republicans outnumber Democrats 1.6 to 1 countywide, MacArthur leads by 20 points.

“While the most recent voter registration numbers show over 12,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the Third District, MacArthur and Kim have bases of support within the district broken down by county boundaries,” Hughes Center Interim Executive Director Michael W. Klein said. “In a race this close, whoever does a better job of turning out their voters will have a big advantage.”

John Froonjian, senior research associate for the Hughes Center, noted that the poll is a snapshot of the race at this time and that there are still more than three weeks until the election.

The poll was conducted by the Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy. Live interviewers who are mostly Stockton University students called cell phones and landlines from the Stockton campus Oct. 3-10, 2018. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.2 percentage points and higher for data subsets. The Stockton Polling Institute is part of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton.

MacArthur, running for his third House term, is viewed favorably by 37 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent, with 23 percent not familiar with him. Kim is viewed favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent, with 28 percent unfamiliar with the former National Security Council staffer.

The issue named by the largest percentage of respondents as their top issue in the election is health care, identified by 15 percent. When asked specifically about health care — an issue on which Kim and Democrats nationwide have campaigned — 74 percent say it is an extremely important factor (39 percent) or a significant factor (35 percent) in deciding how they will vote. Seventeen percent call health care a minor factor and 8 percent say it is not a factor at all.

Forty-two percent of respondents are in favor of trying to strengthen the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare, and 35 percent support a complete repeal. Ten percent support moves to weaken the law, and 10 percent want to keep the law just as it is. Broken down along party lines, 76 percent of Democrats want to strengthen the law and 69 percent of Republicans favor a repeal.

However, 76 percent overall in the 3rd District want to keep in effect the rule prohibiting insurance companies from denying coverage or charging more because of pre-existing conditions.

Respondents were asked to assess how MacArthur’s actions regarding Obamacare may or may not affect their vote, but they were not given any specific information about his leading role in trying to repeal the law. Likely voters say those efforts make them less likely to vote for MacArthur by a 2-1 margin over those more likely to vote for him. Seventeen percent say his Obamacare efforts will make no difference in their vote, and 34 percent do not know enough about his role to have an opinion.

Those polled voiced a preference for Republican Bob Hugin over Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez in the U.S. Senate race. Hugin leads Menendez in the district by nine percentage points, 49-40, with 4 percent for Libertarian Murray Sabrin. Eight percent are undecided or say they will vote for someone else.

Hugin is doing better among his partisan base (91 percent support from Republicans) than is Menendez (78 percent of Democrats). Recent Stockton Polls statewide and in South Jersey found double-digit percentages of Democrats not ready to commit to Menendez.

In the Third District, 15 percent of Democrats are undecided or say they will vote for someone other than the major party candidates. However, a few other recent statewide polls have found more New Jersey Democrats supporting their party’s nominee.

Those polled also show more of a preference for President Donald Trump than the statewide average. Trump’s job performance rating of 44 percent either good or excellent is better than the 36 percent approval rating found in the statewide New Jersey Stockton Poll released Oct. 1.

However, 55 percent in the Third District rate his performance as fair (10 percent) or poor (45 percent), a reversal of 2016 election results in which Trump won the district by six points with 51 percent of the vote.

Seven percent of respondents said Trump was the most important issue in this year’s election in response to an open-ended question. Another 7 percent said putting Democrats in control of Congress. These were the fourth and fifth top issues, behind health care (15 percent), taxes (9 percent), and the economy (8.4 percent).

See related: 5 Questions With Your 3rd District Candidates, MacArthur And Kim

Tom MacArthur and Andy Kim, photos provided by their campaigns