Poll: Trump, Kasich Neck-and-Neck Approaching Ohio Primary

CLEVELAND, OH — As the Ohio Republican Primary approaches, Donald Trump and Gov. John Kasich are locked in a dogfight.

As of March 7, Kasich trails Trump by 3 percent, according to Public Policy Polling.

Trump has 38 percent of likely primary voters, and Kasich, 35 percent. That's well ahead of the GOP pack: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is polling third with 15 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has just 5 percent.

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The poll, which surveyed 638 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted between March 4 and 6. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percent.

The close margin, a statistical deadheat, means a Kasich win would be no surprise. The likely voters had a higher opinion of Kasich than Trump. When it came to the candidates' favorability, 70 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Kasich to just 22 percent unfavorable. The numbers for Trump were not as good, with just 48 percent favorable to 44 percent unfavorable.

The poll shows that in a two-person race, Kasich would lead Trump 55 to 40. But don't count on Rubio or Cruz to drop out in the next week.

Another promising sign for Kasich is that almost one-third of voters may end up changing their vote. Of those polled, 69 percent said they're committed to their current choice; 31 percent said they might change their choice.

Kasich has said that if he doesn't win Ohio, he's out of the race. Kasich trails Trump by a 10-1 ratio in the delegate count. As of Monday, Trump has 394 delegates pledged to his campaign compared to Kasich's 37, according to the Associated Press. Ohio carries 66 delegates, and is a winner-take-all state.

Last week, Kasich guaranteed a win in Ohio.

"I'm going to win Ohio," he told Politico, "plain and simple."

Kasich is leading in endorsements in the Buckeye State. He's picked up endorsements from Sen. Rob Portman and U.S. Reps. Bill Johnson, Pat Tiberi, Michael Turner and Steve Stivers — all Republicans from Ohio. Kasich also picked up a big-name endorsement Sunday from former govenror of California Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The Arnold knows something about winning, and winning something bigger than the mere presidency of the United States. He won the Mr. Universe competition in 1967.

[Images via Gage Skidmore, Flickr, used under Creative Commons]