NOAA Releases Winter 2018-19 Outlook For Eastern PA

Eastern Pennsylvania could be looking at a milder-than-usual winter, according to a new forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But likely El Nino conditions could mean it will be wetter than usual.

The federal agency this week released its annual winter outlook, saying Eastern Pennsylvania can expect above-average amounts of precipitation because of a likely El Nino system. The greater levels of precipitation could lend itself to more snow than average, and the Mid-Atlantic region typically depends on the strength of El Nino when it comes to snowfall, according to the winter forecast.

The last El Nino did result in "Snowzilla" in 2015-16, so we could get another one. However, this will be a relatively weak El Nino, so don't expect to get pounded with blizzards throughout the season, according to the NOAA.

No part of the United States is favored to have below-average temperatures in the agency's forecast.

Here is the outlook:

Here is the precipitation potential in Eastern Pennsylvania:

Several publications, including the Farmers' Almanac, have already made long-range winter predictions. The NOAA says the agency's forecast is the most accurate.

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"Snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur," according to the NOAA.

The Old Farmer's Almanac says winter will be milder than usual, while the Farmers' Almanac says it will be blustery, cold and snowy.

See related: Farmers' Almanac Releases NJ Winter 2019 Forecast: It's A Doozy

Old Farmer's Almanac Issues Winter 2019 Forecast For NJ

Of course, these are early forecasts that could prove to be wildly off-base. But if you want an idea of what we're expecting this coming winter, NOAA says keep your snowshoes handy.

"We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the agency's Climate Prediction Center. "Although a weak El Nino is expected, it may still influence the winter season by bringing wetter conditions across the southern United States, and warmer, drier conditions to parts of the North."

If you're wondering what El Nino means, the NWS says it is an "ocean-atmosphere climate interaction that is linked to periodic warming in sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific."

During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the U.S. can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic and South and drier conditions in parts of the North, the National Weather Service says.

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