Will It Be A Warm Or Wintry Spring? Here’s What Forecasts Say

Spring forecasts are rolling in, providing an early look at what to expect as a particularly cold and snowy winter in some parts of the country draws to a close.

Meteorological spring starts March 1, while astronomical spring begins with the vernal equinox on March 20.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center makes predictions about both temperature and precipitation nationwide for April through June. Despite the presence of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, NOAA predicts it will weaken and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by spring, likely lasting through the summer. This transition, combined with long-term warming trends, contributes to the expectation of widespread warm conditions.

The agency expects above-normal temperatures across most of the United States, including the Southwest, Plains, Southeast, and much of the southern Mississippi Valley-Mid Atlantic region.

Parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast show equal chances of a warmer-than-normal spring.

Precipitation is expected to be below normal in the western U.S., especially the Southwest and the central and southern Plains. NOAA expects the Great Lakes southward into Ohio and the Mississippi Valley to see a wetter-than-average spring.

AccuWeather expects wintry weather to linger in some parts of the country, including in the Northeast and Midwest.

Many areas, especially in the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast, will feel winter conditions well into spring, the private weather service said. Late-season cold snaps, frost and occasional snow are possible even after the official start of spring.

Warm weather in those regions may be brief, as cold air masses continue to push south and west periodically, AccuWeather said, noting the shift to springlike temperatures will also be slower in parts of the Northwest.

In contrast, the southern half of the country is expected to warm up faster, with springlike temperatures arriving earlier and fewer cool interruptions.

Drought conditions could worsen in the Southwest, Plains and Southeast due to limited rainfall.

The Weather Channel said in its forecast that the La Niña pattern that influenced winter is weakening and is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions through spring. This shift changes large-scale weather patterns across the U.S. and makes earlier, persistent La Niña influences less pronounced, the private weather service said.

The temperature outlook for March though May suggests:

• March: Colder-than-average temperatures are likely across the northern tier of the country (Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast), while much of the South, central U.S., and West are likely to trend warmer.
• April: A broader shift toward above-average temperatures extends across most of the country, though parts of the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest may remain cooler.
• May: Warm conditions are expected continue across much of the Lower 48, especially in the West and central regions. Some northern areas (like New England) may still be near average.

Conditions favor a drier than average in the West, continuing a pattern of lower precipitation. Wetter conditions across much of the East could be beneficial where drought stress exists.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country. Temperatures that are closer to or below seasonal averages are expected in Parts of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and areas of Montana and Colorado.

Most of the country will also be drier than normal, with wetter conditions expected in Upper Alaska, Texas and Oklahoma, the Northern Appalachians, the High Plains, the Upper Midwest, and the Intermountain region.

The Almanac says it uses a “unique formula” to make its predictions, consulting solar science, climatology and meteorology.