Bloomberg, Sanders Tied For Lead Among Likely VA Voters: Poll

VIRGINIA — After former Vice President Joe Biden's surprisingly poor performances in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT) and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg are now running neck and neck in Virginia in the latest polling by Monmouth University. Among Virginia voters who are likely to participate in the Democratic primary on March 3, support currently stands at 22 percent for Sanders, 22 percent for Bloomberg and 18 percent for Biden.

The poll, conducted Feb. 13-16, found that most Democratic voters in Virginia prioritize someone who can beat President Donald Trump, but few seem to be firmly decided on who that candidate is. But Virginia is also a state where none of the state's congressional delegatation is expected to endorse Sanders, the current national frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.

"Virginia provides an interesting test on Super Tuesday. A wide range of candidates appeal to voters here and it is very much a jump ball at this point," Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said Tuesday in a statement.

In the Monmouth University poll, former South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Buttigieg is polling at 11 percent in Virginia, followed by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (MN), who came in a strong third place in New Hampshire, at 9 percent, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (MA) at 5 percent.

Only five months ago, a poll conducted for the University of Mary Washington showed Biden holding a substantial lead in Virginia over the other candidates for the Democratic nomination. Biden was the favorite of 23 percent of registered Virginia voters at the time, with 9 percent favoring Warren and 9 percent favoring Sanders. Only 5 percent of registered voters favored Buttigieg at the time, according to the poll, which was conducted Sept. 3-15 for the University of Mary Washington by Research America Inc.

Many Virginia voters are waiting to see what happens in Nevada and South Carolina to determine how they plan to vote in Virginia on Super Tuesday. A poor performance by Biden and Warren in those two states could mean that the Super Tuesday primaries on March 3 might be a make-or-break day for their campaigns.

In Nevada and South Carolina, if Klobuchar doesn't come close to her surprising third-place finish in New Hampshire, her campaign could be in trouble. On the other hand, a divisive victory by Sanders in Nevada and South Carolina will still leave Buttigieg in a relatively strong position heading into the March 3 primary in Virginia on Super Tuesday, when the largest number of states and territories will hold a presidential primary or caucus.

Just 25 percent of likely Virginia Democratic primary voters are firmly set on their candidate choice, according to the Monmouth University poll. Even though Biden has dropped in the polls and Sanders has moved up, the results out of Iowa and New Hampshire had little impact on how Virginia voters are viewing this race, according to the Monmouth University pollsters.

More than 80 percent of the Democratic voters polled said the outcomes of those two contests did not change their thinking about the upcoming primary. Among the small number who said they took a second look at the field because of the outcome of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, just under half said they changed their mind about whom to support.

Patch spoke with a Democratic voter Monday at a campaign event for Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (HI) who did change his perspective on the Democratic race after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Although he is still undecided with less than two weeks until the March 3 primary in Virginia, Charles Tullan noted that the strong performances by Buttigieg and Klobuchar in the New Hampshire primary caused him to give their campaigns a closer look.

Prior to the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucuses, Tullan noted how the polls appeared to favor Biden, Sanders and Warren as the frontrunners. "After seeing Klobuchar and Buttigieg come back up, it was like, 'Oh, I can actually vote for whoever I want now without it being a wasted vote.' So, I have to pay more attention to all the candidates now," said Tullan, a Fairfax City resident.

As for Bloomberg, who declined to campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire and doesn't plan to make visits to Nevada or South Carolina, the poll shows the billionaire New Yorker doing well in Virginia.

The Monmouth University poll asked Virginia voters how they would vote in a hypothetical two-person race pitting Sanders against one of the more moderate candidates. In these scenarios, Sanders edges past both Klobuchar (45 percent to 42 percent) and Buttigieg (44 percent to 42 percent) but comes out on the losing end against Bloomberg (41 percent to 47 percent) and by an even wider margin against Biden (38 percent to 51 percent).

"When pitted against Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg are stronger in Virginia’s racially diverse electorate than Klobuchar and Buttigieg," Murray said. Two of the leading candidates are already well known and the third has been spending a lot of time and money here, so we can’t be sure whether these differences are the product of real preferences or just name recognition."

Virginia voters have a history of supporting less progressive Democratic candidates for president. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary in Virginia in a landslide against Sanders in 2016, getting 64 percent of the votes compared to 35 percent for Sanders.

In the poll, Monmouth University found that 62 percent of voters in Virginia view how they perceive a Democratic nominee's ability to beat Trump in the November general election as more important than the polices of the Democratic nominee. Among those who say beating Trump is their top priority no matter the policy positions of the Democratic nominee, 23 percent support Biden, 23 percent support Bloomberg and 17 percent support Sanders.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone Feb. 13-16, with 400 Virginia voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary. The poll's results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, according the Monmouth University Polling Institute, which conducted the poll.