Virginia Governor's Race 2017: Northam Leads Gillespie By 13 Points In New Post Poll

FAIRFAX, VA — A month before the election, Democratic candidate Ralph Northam has a 13-point lead over Republican challenger Ed Gillespie in the race for Virginia governor according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll. Northam, the state's lieutenant governor, leads 53 percent to 40 percent among likely voters. Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra is at 4 percent.

It's Northam's largest lead in any poll over the past couple of weeks. On Sept. 19, a Quinnipac poll had Northam ahead by 10 points while a Mason-Dixon poll the same day tabbed the race a statistical tie, with Gillespie trailing by just a point. On Sept. 25, a Christopher Newport University poll had Northern up by 6. The next day, a Monmouth poll gave Northerm a 5-point lead; Roanoke College, a 4-point lead.

Noted political analyst Mark Rozell, dean of George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and Government, pointed out that the relatively subdued tone of the race so far probably hasn't gotten the attention of many voters. That's especially true compared to this time four years ago, when now-Gov. Terry McAullife and Republican challenger Ken Cuccinelli were engaged in a far more contentious affair.

"There’s a lack of intensity right now," Rozell told the Washington Post. "Many fewer people than typically at this stage are paying close attention, and the candidates at this point have really not excited the electorate. . . .

"A lot can change in the next month. If I were the Northam campaign, I would not feel too comfortable right now."

In the Post-Schar poll, 29 percent of the likely voters said their No. 1 issue is health care, with the economy at 26 percent. Just 10 percent said illegal immigration is a priority, and 3 percent said the Confederate monuments debate is the most important issue in the race.

The Gillespie camp has been ratcheting up the latter two issues in recent weeks and days. This week, the Republican Party of Virginia came out with a mailer that has a photo of the Robert E. Lee Statue on Richmond's Monument Avenue and says Northam wants to "tear down history while making life easier for illegal immigrants."

Quentin Kidd, director of CNUs Wason Center for Public Policy, believes such a narrative is a result of recent poll results.

"The Gillespie team wants to find something to put Northam on the defensive," Kidd told the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Northam has been a fierce critic of President Donald Trump, calling him "narcissistic maniac" in one TV ad. In the Post-Schar poll, 52 percent of likely voters said Trump will not be a factor in their voting while 30 percent said their vote will be to express opposition to the president, and 17 percent said their vote will be to express support for Trump. Democrat Hillary Clinton beat Trump in Virginia during the 2016 presidential race.

The poll was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 2 among a random sample of 1,121 adults.

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