Analysis: 5 Things To Know Before House District 16 Primary On Sept. 26

TUSCALOOSA, AL — A week from today, voters in parts of Fayette, Jefferson and Tuscaloosa counties will cast ballots for the Republican Primary in the special election to fill the open House District 16 seat in the Alabama House of Representatives.

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In total, five Republicans are set to appear on the primary ballot, while the lone Democrat in the race — Fayette County Commissioner John Underwood — has already secured his party's nomination for the special election ballot in January 2024.

As Patch previously reported, the seat became open following the resignation of former Republican state Rep. Kyle South of Fayette, who stepped down from the legislature this summer to become the new president and CEO of the Chamber of Commerce of West Alabama.

ALSO READ: House District 16 Special Election Guide | Everything You Need To Know

Over the last two months, Tuscaloosa Patch caught up with each candidate for in-depth interviews and has followed fundraising to get the best idea of where each candidate stands.

Here Are 5 Things To Know:

1. Fundraising

As Patch reported on Monday, Northport attorney Brian Brinyark leads the way in total fundraising since qualifying for the GOP Primary, raising $48,355 to date and receiving a great deal of support from voters and businesses in northern Tuscaloosa County.

Brinyark is followed closely by Fayette County Commissioner Brad Cox, who has raised $47,544 over the same time period, primarily in the form of large donations from Political Action Committees (PACs)

Conversely, Cox has outspent his Republican opponents in the months ahead of the primary, shelling out $38,184.88 total since the campaign season began.

Brinkyark and fellow Republican candidate Greg Fanin have spent $36,257.18 and $24,938.03, to date, respectively, while Mike Simpson has raised $7,500 to date and spent nearly all of it.

Click here for a more detailed look at the most recent campaign finance filings for the race, such as contributions from Political Action Committees (PACs) and businesses.

2. House District 16 demographics

In total, census records show the district has a population of 44,476, with 35,661 residents who are 18 years old or older. The population of House District 16, the majority of which is in Fayette County, is approximately 90% white and 7% Black.

The median age of residents in the district is 43.2 years old.

It's also worth noting that the population of the district has been shrinking — a talking point mentioned by nearly all of the candidates vying for the seat.

According to the latest numbers from the Alabama Secretary of State's Office, Fayette County has a total of 12,468 registered voters, both active and inactive.

In the 2022 General Election, former state Rep. Kyle South ran unopposed and saw 13,275 ballots cast during his bid for re-election.

However, in the last contested Republican primary for the seat in 2018, South defeated current House District 16 candidate Mike Simpson with 71% of the vote in a primary election that saw 8,701 registered voters cast ballots. This was prior to the portions of Lamar County once included in the district being removed through the reapportionment process.

3. Will there be a runoff?

A runoff is likely if looking just at (A) the number of candidates set to appear on the ballot and (B) the amount of money spent by three candidates — Brinyark, Cox and Fanin.

While Brinyark and Cox established themselves early this summer as the two presumed frontrunners, Fanin has raised and spent a considerable amount on the campaign trail and could stand out as the difference when it comes to a Republican candidate winning the primary outright and avoiding a costly runoff, depending on how well each of them performs at the ballot box on Sept. 26.

Indeed, if one of these three big spenders is able to siphon away enough votes to force a runoff on Oct. 24, then the first man out will hold a key endorsement that could tip the scales in favor of one candidate or another.

While Simpson has run for the seat before, his comparatively low fundraising and past performance at the polls will likely indicate that he will be on the outside looking in following the GOP Primary, but only time will tell.

The only remaining candidate on the Republican ballot — Floyd "Jr" Rodgers, Jr. — has run a primarily grassroots campaign but substantially lags in fundraising to the point that he has not met the threshold required for reporting campaign finances.

4. What does history say?

The lone Democrat who qualified for the January 2024 general election, Fayette County Commissioner John Underwood, will have a tough rough to victory running in an overwhelmingly White conservative district.

The last Democrat to hold the seat was Daniel H. Bowman of Sulligent — a Republican-turned-Democrat who was soundly defeated by South in 2014, garnering just 3,430 votes or 24.7%.

However, after Lamar County was reapportioned out of House District 16, it remains unclear how a Democratic candidate will perform, considering there has not been one on the General Election ballot since South was first elected to the legislature by unseating the Democratic incumbent.

Instead, this hotly contested primary will provide interesting insight into the conservative district when it is faced with narrowing down a large field of Republican candidates, so there really is no historical precedent other than the deep conservatism of the district to use as an indicator for what candidate will come out on top.

5. Biggest issues on the campaign trail

Here's a look at what each Republican candidate told Tuscaloosa Patch when asked what they believed to be the most pressing issue facing House District 16:

Brian Brinyark: "Jobs. The people in District 16 need more and better-paying jobs to allow them to continue to live in the communities they love and not have to move. We must expand existing industries and small businesses, finding ways to ensure their future success. And we must never stop recruiting new businesses and industries that complement them. How do we accomplish that? We create more jobs by maintaining and expanding the infrastructure so critical to business success. This means better roads and highways, and access to fiber for the internet. Our district is a wonderful place, but we must update, improve, and maintain so we can all continue to live here for generations to come."

Brad Cox: "This district is primarily rural and rural issues are certainly at the top of my list of priorities. Most people in this District are like me, they want quality infrastructure, top-notch schools, and they desire someone to represent them with the same conservative values that they have. These are the areas that I plan to focus on when elected. I want to see equal funding for infrastructure projects in rural counties. Rural areas cannot attract business and industry without adequate infrastructure. I plan to focus on fully-funding teachers and school districts, especially in the expansion of career and technical education and workforce development. It is hard to narrow down the list to one single issue, but equal representation and funding for this rural district will absolutely be at the forefront of my decision-making process."

Greg Fanin: "Economic development. We have to develop the infrastructure and get our shoulders set and do better with economic development and workforce development. That was one thing, the other is the population boom in northern Tuscaloosa County is going to put a huge strain on the infrastructure down there. Road systems are already crowded down there. Citizens are getting very aggravated about that and the [Tuscaloosa County School System] is not getting the funds, I think, to expand the way it should be with the growth. Tuscaloosa is seeing a boom and we've got to have someone who goes to Montgomery and tell the Department of Transportation, who does the traffic counts, and we need a legislator to advocate that you can't put that many people down a two-lane road and not expect accidents. You see this on Highway 171, Highway 43 and Highway 216, and those three roads, all three need to be at least three-lane."

Floyd Rodgers Jr.: "From spending many years within our churches, communities, and schools, we feel like rural communities such as ours have been overlooked when it comes to improving our quality of life and economic development. We need more business development opportunities, more housing, recreational facilities for families, and mental health resources. We have a fast-growing drug use epidemic and that in-turn increases crime rates. With that being said, it’s too complicated to point out one individual issue, because as we know, there are many different intricacies working together. It’s my goal to find workable solutions."

Mike Simpson: "District 16 faces several prominent issues, one being; setting public expectations in the areas of community development and the support of new and existing industry and business. District 16 is a large area in acres, with a few densely populated areas in each of the counties. It is absolutely true that the infrastructure development of any county is important. When decisions are made by leadership for the development of roads and bridges to accommodate more traffic, and traffic according to the public is not currently an issue, that has to be taken into account. Paving and maintaining roads is necessary to promote good travel routes. The infrastructure project may, in fact, be necessary to the future needs of a particular area; but that has to be conveyed to the people. If the project's purpose and expected time of completion is not conveyed to the people, the lack of information will frustrate the public and they will lose faith in leadership. Good roads and industrial parks are fine, but in order to evaluate the longevity and growth of an area, one should also determine whether there are enough people to sustain that business or industry. I often hear about needing more industry and business because that creates jobs and revenue that's good for the employee, customer, town, city and county. There is a need to focus as much attention and effort on existing industry and businesses as we do on attracting new. What I don’t hear much talk about in rural areas is the development of homes or helping people acquire those homes where they will put down roots to live. This is a vital part of success for the development of an area because people who live in the area are largely the ones who support the businesses and industry as patrons and employees. The existing business or industry located in District 16 wants to remain profitable and new ones strive to succeed and grow. For that to happen, it will take a certain population of people to make it sustainable. Many communities celebrate at the announcement of a new store or restaurant coming to town. If that business does not have the customers or employees sufficient to maintain it will be short-lived. You then have a large vacant store or building that sits empty in the community contributing to a blight and if not corrected, ultimately, a need for revitalization in the community. I hear people talk about soliciting industry and business into the district to promote growth and at first glance that seems good, but it really depends on whether it is sustainable and is matched to the community by size and population."

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