Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins: See What Forecasters Predict For VA

June 1 marked the beginning of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a below-normal season this year.

NOAA's forecast for the season, which runs through November 30, calls for a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).

NOAA said it has a 70 percent confidence in these ranges.

El Niño conditions are expected to keep things below normal, but forecasters warned that things could still change.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

The outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Details on where and when storms may fall are determined by short-term and variable weather patterns, NOAA said.

Regardless, officials are urging Virginians to prepare ahead of any storm.

“As Atlantic hurricane season begins, I urge every Virginian to take the time now to review their emergency plans and make sure their families are fully prepared for the months ahead,” Gov. Abigail Spanberger said in a statement. “Whether you live in Hampton Roads, Southwest Virginia, or anywhere in between, severe weather can impact every community across our Commonwealth. By taking steps to prepare now, we can save lives, protect property, and lessen the damage to local communities when storms threaten Virginia.”

More information on the seasonal outlook is expected in early August ahead of peak season, which runs from mid-September through October. In Virginia, the greatest risk typically occurs from late summer into early fall.

To learn more about preparing your business, your family, and your property against hurricane threats (and other disasters), visit vaemergency.gov/prepare and ready.gov/hurricanes.