‘Still Some Winter Left’: First VA, DC Spring Forecast By AccuWeather

VIRGINIA — After hinting at it in a spring preview recently, AccuWeather suggests with its spring 2023 forecast, released last week, that winter isn’t quite done with us in Virginia and the District, where snow has been in short supply.

Meteorological spring starts March 1, and it could feel like spring especially in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states, but don’t trust it, according to AccuWeather.

Around the first official day of spring, March 20, “the AccuWeather long-range team is concerned about a surge of cold and wintry weather,” the private weather company’s senior meteorologist, Paul Pastelok, said in a story on the AccuWeather website.

In DC and Virginia, a late-season arctic cold blast could finally bring some snow, which has been hard to come by along the Interstate 95 corridor. Boston is the only major city along the route where more than an inch of snow accumulated through the end of January.

Unusually warm water off the East Coast can help storms like nor'easters strengthen rapidly when they form, increasing the potential for a high-impact storm in the mid-Atlantic at the end of winter and during the first half of spring.

March has the potential to be the snowiest month of the year for major East Coast cities as a new weather pattern emerges at the start of spring.

Here’s a snapshot of what spring could look like in the rest of the country:

People living in the Midwest and Northeast could experience a few mild days this month, but should resist any temptation to put away the snow shovels and winter coats.

“Don’t be fooled,” Pastelok said. “There’s still some winter left in this season that may last into spring, and we could be talking about snow in March. And we may even see a little bit of snow in the Northeast in April.”

Don’t count out another shift in the polar vortex that could send a blast of bitterly cold air from the Arctic into the contiguous U.S. states. That could trigger spring snowstorms in areas that have been starved for snow this year.

For example, New York City got its first measurable snowfall Feb. 1 — the latest ever recorded since record keeping began in 1869.

That could all change in March, when a new weather pattern emerges, increasing the chances for a couple of nor’easters near the end of winter and the first half of spring, according to Pastelok.

Temperatures as a whole could remain chilly through May, and the potential for a late freeze in March or April could set back gardeners in the southern Appalachians, the Ohio, Tennessee and mid-Mississippi valleys, and some parts of the Gulf Coast.

States from the Gulf Coast to the Plains and potentially in the Midwest could see the tornado season start in March, though AccuWeather doesn’t expect the number of twisters in March to approach last year’s total of 233 for the month. Cold, stable air settling over the Plains and Midwest in March and early April won’t completely eliminate the risk of tornadoes, but it could reduce the potential for widespread, multi-day outbreaks, according to the forecast.

Plains and Upper Midwest states that received an abundance of snow — by the end of January, Minneapolis had accumulated 55 inches — could see flooding as it begins to melt.

Western states could see further drought relief with continued storms, especially in the Pacific Northwest. Still, AccuWeather noted, the drought is far from over and water restrictions could continue in the Colorado River Basin, which feeds both Lake Powell and Lake Mead, both of which have fallen to record low levels last year.

It could feel like summer in much of the Southwest by mid-April, but it will take longer for the warmer temperatures to arrive in central and northern California and the Pacific Northwest, where the ground is likely to remain saturated from winter storms.

Snow melt in the mountains, along with chances of rain in California in April and May, could heighten the risk of additional flooding.

» Read the complete spring 2023 forecast on AccuWeather.