VA Hurricane Forecast: How Many Storms Likely In Quiet Start To Season

VIRGINIA — The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could end up quieter than initial projections, although it is still expected to produce more than a dozen named storms, according to officials in an updated forecast.

The development bodes well for Virginia, but that doesn't mean the state is in the clear with the typical peak period looming in September.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an "above-average" Atlantic hurricane season in late May. The agency originally projected a 65 percent chance for above-normal activity, but reduced the probability to 60 percent last week.

Related: 2022 Hurricane Names List Released For Atlantic Season

So far, this season, which kicked off June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has seen three named tropical storms — Alex, Bonnie and Colin.

Mid-September is the climatological peak to hurricane season when activity tends to reach a crescendo, The Washington Post reports.

"All told, the Atlantic Ocean has been surprisingly quiet. No hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin so far this year — an impressive 317-day drought," The Capital Weather Gang said. "This year has now entered into the top 10 years with the longest dearth of hurricanes in the satellite record."

Major hurricanes are category 3, 4 and 5 storms on the Saffir/Simpson scale. They have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

NOAA's new projections for the current hurricane season could mean a better chance that Virginia makes it through the year without a damaging tropical storm. But that's not a guarantee.

Tropical Storm Isaias in August 2020 brought heavy winds, rain and multiple tornadoes to southeastern Virginia. The region bore the brunt of the storm's 70-mph winds as it exited North Carolina. In Hampton Roads, more than 250,000 customers lost power.

In July 2021, Tropical Storm Elsa dumped several inches of rain on Hampton Roads and central Virginia. A tornado touched down and caused some damage to buildings in Suffolks

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency as Tropical Depression Ida passed over the coast in July 2021, dropping a few inches of rain in the Hampton Roads area.

"While the tropics have been relatively quiet over the last month, remember that it only takes one landfalling storm to devastate a community," said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster. "This is especially critical as we head into what the team here anticipates is likely to be a busy peak of the season."

How Hurricane Projections Have Changed

The Atlantic hurricane season peaks from mid-August to mid-October. Originally, federal officials projected a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of near-normal hurricane activity and a 10 percent chance of a "below-normal" season.

Saharan dust traveling across the Atlantic has prevented much hurricane development so far, according to Fox Weather. The dry, dusty air, which makes its way across the ocean each year, is known for suppressing the formation of hurricanes.

The waters won't stay quiet for long, Colorado State University said in a news release. With La Niña causing slightly warmer-than-normal waters in the Atlantic and Caribbean, forecasters at the university said this will fuel the development of storms. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are just slightly above normal, which should be a neutral factor in how the remainder of the season developers, they added.

Other atmospheric and oceanic conditions increasing the likelihood of storm development for the remainder of the hurricane season include weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an active west African Monsoon, NOAA said.

NOAA's new 2022 Atlantic hurricane season update calls for 14 to 20 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these, six to 10 could become hurricanes with winds 74 mph or greater, while three to five could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.

Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane-season forecasts, also tamped down its predictions from April. The school now predicts 18 named storms, instead of 19, with eight becoming hurricanes — down from nine.

Of these 18 predicted storms, CSU researchers expect eight to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength with winds of 111 mph or greater.

"I don't think the season is going to be a dud, but it's taking its sweet time getting going," said hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach, who leads the university's forecast team.

"Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual and we therefore cannot afford to let our guard down," FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell added. "This is especially important as we enter peak hurricane season — the next Ida or Sandy could still be lying in wait."

Hurricane Preparation Tips

Residents should take these safety precautions before a storm heads toward Virginia:

• Coastal Virginians should learn their evacuation zone now and make a plan to prepare their home and business at KnowYourZoneVA.org.
• Visit DCR.virginia.gov/vfris to learn the flood risk for your home and business.
• Contact an insurance agent or call the National Flood Insurance Program at 888.379.9531 or visit Floodsmart.gov to purchase a flood insurance policy. Remember, it takes 30 days for a flood insurance policy to take effect.
• Sign up for alerts and warnings from your county and state, as well as NOAA Weather Radio https://www.weather.gov/nwr/
• Make a plan - visit https://www.ready.gov/plan
• Save for a rainy day - visit https://www.ready.gov/financial-preparedness
• Practice emergency drills both at home and at the office
• Make and test a family communications plan* Designate a central contact number with a family member or trusted friend, perhaps out of town* Text messages will go through when voice lines are overloaded
• Assemble or update emergency supplies - visit https://www.ready.gov/kit (includes CDC recommendations)
• Safeguard valuable documents both physically and digitally
• Make your home safer - visit https://www.weather.gov/wrn/2020-hurricane-strengthen-home
• Document and insure your property - visit https://www.weather.gov/wrn/2020-hurricane-insurance
• Download the FEMA app and visit Ready.gov or Listo.gov for preparedness tips.

Virginia Hurricane History

In September 2019, Tropical Storm Dorian caused flooding to coastal areas of the Commonwealth and some evacuations.

The Virginia Department of Emergency Management reminded Commonwealth residents that hurricanes can affect much of the state. On Aug. 19, 1969, Hurricane Camille hit the state overnight and caused massive inland flooding and mudslides that killed 153 people. The storm remains Virginia's deadliest natural disaster 50 years later, the agency said.

Camille dropped 27 inches of rain — what is typically six months of precipitation — on Nelson County overnight. More than 100 bridges, roads or railways were washed away or damaged, and more than 900 buildings and structures damaged or destroyed in Virginia.

"Camille reminds us that hurricanes are a statewide threat, not just a coastal concern, as the worst damage occurred hundreds of miles inland," the agency said.