What’s The Chance Of A White Christmas In VA? Here Are The Chances

VIRGINIA — Not to shatter your festive winter snow globe, but the chances of a white Christmas in the DC/Northern Virginia region aren’t great this year, according to AccuWeather’s long-range holiday forecast.

The official definition of a "white Christmas" from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says a Christmas can only be considered white if there is one inch of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. on Dec. 25.

The last time there was a white Christmas in D.C. was in 2009, and that was snow left over from the monster snowstorm a week earlier dubbed "Snowpocalypse," WUSA said.

Since record-keeping began in 1884, snow has only fallen on Christmas Day in D.C. nine times. That means there is a 7 percent chance of a white Christmas in the D.C. region in 2022.

There have been 19 times when snow was on the ground in D.C. for Christmas since 1888, WUSA reported. In 1962, D.C. saw the most snowfall on Dec. 25 with 5.4 inches.

The influential La Niña weather pattern is in play for a third consecutive winter, and that typically drives an active storm track across the northern tier of U.S. states while leaving southern sections of the country drier than normal. This Christmas, AccuWeather said, the chances of snow in the mid-Atlantic states are low.

"Although the chances remain relatively lower than average from coastal Maine to Virginia, snow lovers in the Northeast can find joy in that it won't be a total bust in terms of snow chances across the region this year," the weather agency said.

To determine the probability of a White Christmas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center looked at historical data from 1981-2010. That puts that likelihood of an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day in Northern Virginia and DC on the low end, but it's more likely in the western counties.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts large swaths of the country could see snow during Christmas week. The long-range forecast for Northern Virginia suggests that rain showers may turn to snow flurries around Christmas.

If you’re traveling:

People living in the Northeast, Lower Lakes, Upper Midwest, Heartland, High Plains, and Intermountain regions, along with Alaska, can all expect to see snow showers and colder temperatures in the days leading up to Christmas.

Rain showers in the Atlantic Corridor, Appalachians and Ohio Valley are expected to turn to snow showers around Christmas.

The Deep South, Texas and Oklahoma are expected to see sunny skies around Christmas. Temperatures may be chilly in the Deep South, but milder in Texas and Oklahoma.

The Desert Southwest could see a mix, with snow showers in the eastern half of the region and rain in the west.

Rain in the Pacific Northwest is expected to occasionally turn to wet snow, accompanied by chilly temperatures. The Pacific Southwest is expected to see only rain.

The eastern and western islands of Hawaii should expect rain showers for Christmas, with isolated showers occurring in the central part of the archipelago.