Richmond Highway Corridor Market Assessment Study Presented

HYBLA VALLEY, VA — On Tuesday, a market assessment study of the Richmond Highway corridor was presented to Fairfax County's Economic Advisory Commission.

The presentation by the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority looked at the pipeline for retail, office, hotel and residential development and long-term land-use plans in the corridor. It also considered effects of the Embark Richmond Highway initiative and major employment announcements such as Amazon on residential and commercial development.

The study covered 10 miles of Richmond Highway between the Capital Beltway and Fort Belvoir in Fairfax County. The economic development authority brought in Partners in Economic Solutions, an urban economics consulting firm, to conduct the study. The study outlines possible next steps such as additional branding of communities in the Richmond Highway corridor, finding new uses for public spaces, providing technical and financial assistance to businesses, and providing additional marketing of the corridor to real estate investors.

"Richmond Highway is one of the oldest and most important business corridors in Fairfax County," said FCEDA President and CEO Victor Hoskins in a statement. "This market assessment will help county officials, businesses, residents, stakeholders and partners along the corridor build on the important work already done by the county and understand what kind of redevelopment and revitalization opportunities will bring the most benefits for the community and value to the county."

According to the study, household growth in the corridor will be driven by regional population growth pressures, the Amazon headquarters, planned Bus Rapid Transit, and the corridor's changing nature.

The corridor is currently home to an estimated 83,324 residents in 30,257 households. By 2035, households are expected to grow by 17,600, or about 50 percent. Due to limited land, residential growth is expected to come from redevelopment of older garden apartment complexes, older shopping centers and other opportunities for higher density development.

As for the retail market, there is currently 3.9 million square feet of retail space with an overall vacancy rate of 3.2 percent. The study notes changes in the retail industry due to increased competition from online shopping, the COVID-19 pandemic's impacts, and over-retailing.

"Richmond Highway retailers have fared somewhat better than other retailers given their emphasis on sales to residents (rather than office-based workers) and the focus on discount and convenience goods," the study states.

The study recommends a cautious approach to supporting new retail.

"Future population growth will increase local expenditures and create support for new retail facilities," the study states. "Some of the increased spending generated by new residential development will be captured by existing retailers achieving higher sales and some will divert to e-commerce. Over time, there will be opportunities for new retail space, but the County should be cautious about incentivizing retail development and requiring inclusion of retail space in future housing developments."

According to the study, attracting new retails to new mixed-use development will be a challenge going forward. Due to higher costs with new mixed-use developments, new retail spaces will have higher rents than existing shopping centers and freestanding spaces. Suggestions for designing retail spaces within mixed-use projects include creating adequate visibility, modern store configurations and windows, easy-to-access parking, opportunities for curbside pickup, bike racks and good pedestrian traffic flow.

Here are the projected new retail space demands for different parts of the corridor:

North Gateway / Huntington: 163,000 existing square feet

new retail space demand: 44,000 square feet low estimate, 51,000 square feet high estimate

Penn Daw: 338,000 existing square feet

new retail space demand: 54,000 square feet low estimate, 59,000 square feet high estimate

Beacon / Groveton 439,000 existing square feet

new retail space demand: 96,000 square feet low estimate, 106,000 square feet high estimate

Hybla Valley / Gum Springs 1,000,000 existing square feet

new retail space demand: 217,000 square feet low estimate, 239,000 square feet high estimate

South County Center 36,000 existing square feet

new retail space demand: 3,000 square feet low estimate, 3,000 square feet high estimate

Woodlawn 430,000 existing square feet

new retail space demand: 33,000 square feet low estimate, 35,000 square feet high estimate

Total for Community Business Centers: 2,406,000 square feet total

new retail space demand: 447,000 square feet low estimate, 493,000 square feet high estimate

The Board of Supervisors previously endorsed recommendations of the Embark Richmond Highway study, which include creating a consistent six-lane Richmond Highway by widening a portion from four to six lanes, and adding Bus Rapid Transit, contingent on land use changes and project funding. In addition, an updated comprehensive plan envisions development options within the corridor's Community Business Centers.

Supervisors representing the corridor believe the study can guide future actions.

"Our vision is to leave no one behind as we reimagine and equitably develop into a 21st-century urban community, and this is reinforced by the PES study," said Mount Vernon District Supervisor Dan Storck. "While Embark created the framework and infrastructure to transform the corridor, the study provides the analysis and data we need to activate and secure additional investment to amplify the more than $1 billion in county, state and federal investments."

"I want to commend Partners for Economic Solutions for the extensive analysis, thought and specific recommendations that are contained in this final report," Lee District Supervisor Rodney Lusk said. "It provides us a framework for understanding where the historic Richmond Highway is today and a possible path forward in the specific market areas of retail, hotel and office. This study and its findings are the first step in plotting our course and I look forward to working with the community to develop an implementation plan."

See the full market assessment study here.