FL Watches Tropical Storm Ian; DeSantis Urges Hurricane Preparations

Updated at 11:10 p.m.

FLORIDA — With sustained winds of about 40 mph, Tropical Depression Nine was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ian late Friday night by the National Hurricane Center and expected to grow into a fierce storm that will threaten Florida.

Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday afternoon declared a state of emergency for 24 counties in the path of the storm. The NHC said Ian could become one of the most significant storms of the Atlantic hurricane season and could affect Florida by Tuesday.

There is a chance of a 70 mph increase in winds during the next three days, which could make Ian
stronger than what's shown in the official forecast, the NHC said. The storm is not expected to be over Cuba long enough to cause much weakening, and the forecast still shows Ian as a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico while approaching the west coast of Florida.

Executive Order 22-218 allows state emergency officials to coordinate response to the storm. The governor also requested a federal pre-landfall emergency declaration in anticipation of impacts from the storm. Under this emergency order, members of the Florida National Guard will be activated and on standby.

“This storm has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane and we encourage all Floridians to make their preparations," DeSantis said. "We are coordinating with all state and local government partners to track potential impacts of this storm.”

Floridians should prepare their emergency supply kit is ready and stocked with food, water, and medicine, he said.

To find resources to help you prepare for the storm, visit floridadisaster.org/planprepare.

Related: How To Prepare Your Home, Family For Tropical Storm Ian

"The very warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico should allow for more strengthening
once it crosses Cuba, and the NHC forecast once again shows the system approaching the Florida peninsula as a major hurricane by the middle of next week," the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 p.m. Friday update.

Because of the potential for dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, strong winds, flash flooding, and the potential for isolated tornadoes, a state of emergency is in place for these counties:

• Brevard
• Broward
• Charlotte
• Collier
• DeSoto
• Glades
• Hardee
• Hendry
• Highlands
• Hillsborough
• Indian River
• Lee
• Manatee
• Martin
• Miami-Dade
• Monroe
• Okeechobee
• Osceola
• Palm Beach
• Pasco
• Pinellas
• Polk
• Sarasota
• St. Lucie

If Tropical Storm Ian intensifies and its course holds, it would be the first threat from a major hurricane to the United States this season after it crosses the Caribbean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, putting Florida in its path, AccuWeather said.

The storm will intensify on Sunday and Monday, and the system is forecast to become
a hurricane by early Monday.

The storm was tracking west-northwest with a forward speed of 14 mph Friday. As of 11 p.m. it was about 385 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, the NHC said.

As it moves northward, wind shear should subside and the storm will reach bath-warm waters that can fuel the rapid intensification of the depression.

"Because of very warm waters and a forecast minimal amount of disruptive winds, there is the potential for the system to undergo rapid strengthening anytime from this weekend to midweek," AccuWeatherLead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

"Now is NOT the time to freak out. It IS the time to prepare, ready yourselves and pay close attention to future advisories," WFTS Tampa meteorologist Denis Phillips tweeted Friday morning.

If the storm continues on a path that brings it to the Tampa area, Phillips said the impact would similar to Hurricane Irma in 2017.

The National Weather Service said Irma was a Category 5 storm as it slammed into Cuba, was a Category 4 storm when it reached the Florida Keys, and had dropped to a Category 3 hurricane as it swept to the east of Tampa Bay.

Current National Hurricane Center projections have Tropical Depression 9 making landfall south of the Tampa region early Wednesday, but the path is very uncertain this early, forecasters said.

"The storm isn't overly large at this point, so a track like this, would give the area winds of a strong tropical storm, or minimal hurricane force," Phillips said. "If it goes more to the South, which is exactly the way the models have been trending, we would see less."

Tropical depression 9 is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. The depression is expected to approach Jamaica as a tropical storm on Sunday and the Cayman islands as a hurricane on Monday, the NHC said in its 11 a.m. Friday update.

By Monday morning the storm system is forecast to move over Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach Florida at or near major hurricane strength.

"While it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates through the weekend.

"This poses the first threat by a potentially major hurricane to the U.S. this year and because of the quiet nature of the 2022 season until the past week or so, we are concerned that people may take the threat too lightly," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.

If it develops into a named tropical storm, the next two names on the list of 2022 Atlantic tropical cyclones are Hermine and Ian.

This increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic comes after a relatively inactive August. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and September through November are typically the most active months.

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If a tropical disturbance north of Venezuela continues to develop into a hurricane, it will be the fourth hurricane of this season, following Hurricane Danielle, which peaked over the open waters of the North Atlantic in early September, Earl, which closely followed Danielle in the open waters of the North Atlantic, becoming a Category 2 hurricane, and Fiona and Gaston this week.

Forecasters at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center predicted an active hurricane center earlier this year. Forecasters said the ongoing La Niña, in addition to above-average ocean temperatures, signals a 65 percent chance the 2022 hurricane season will be above normal.

They predicted 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, anywhere from six to 10 of the storms could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher.

Forecasters predicted this year's season will spawn anywhere from three to six major hurricanes rated a category 3 or higher during the season's most active months — September to November.