Alice Carter-The Northern Forum-Deporting Immigrants & Housing Crisis

On 11.16.2024 an update was recorded on an article entitled "Mass Deportations Could Worsen the US’s Severe Housing Shortage" authored by Alice M. Carter. It is an important topic. However, trust in media is near all-time lows, according to Gallup research. So, it is understandable that a website like theirs may want to buttress their creditability by saying what The Northern Forum does. Quoting their website: "At THE NORTHERN FORUM, our editorial team is dedicated to delivering accurate, well-researched, and engaging content across various topics, from economy and finance to trending news and daily life. With a passion for journalism and a commitment to transparency, our team ensures that you receive the most relevant and reliable news." Several of those claims will be respectfully debunked in the fact check and analysis initially published on MHProNews that follows.

In fairness, because of her article, some eye opening facts are brought to light. But before diving in, why do fact checks or fisking matter?

Left-leaning Bing's artificial intelligence powered Copilot was asked to address that question, why do fact checks matter? Are fact checks useful for the public? Here is that Q&A (a.k.a.: chat) with Copilot performed on 11.19.2024.

Question by MHProNews) When a fact check is fairly and properly done are they useful for public understanding of important topics?

Copilot answer: "Absolutely. When done fairly and properly, fact checks can be incredibly useful for public understanding. They help clarify misinformation, provide context, and ensure that people have access to accurate information. This is especially important in today's world, where misinformation can spread quickly. A well-conducted fact check can cut through the noise and provide a clear, evidence-based perspective on important topics."

To be fair, the following is provided from The Northern Forum website at this link for fact-check or 'fisking' purposes. The original fact check is found at this link here. What follows has updated information, but is adapted from that original.

Part I

Mass Deportations Could Worsen the US’s Severe Housing Shortage

Alice M. Carter | Update on : November 16, 2024

As Donald Trump gears up to assume the presidency and fulfill a major campaign pledge to deport immigrants, a looming question is its potential impact on the real estate market.

There is a nationwide shortage of housing across all types. A primary cause has been the significant drop in new home construction during the Great Recession, which continued to lag for several years afterward.

A large segment of the workforce in the construction industry consists of immigrants. The mass removal of these workers would severely disrupt the sector, in addition to causing profound social and emotional impacts, according to experts and advocates.

Major homebuilders such as Taylor Morrison, NVR Inc., KB Home, and Century Communities Inc. have opted not to comment. Similarly, there was no comment from D.R. Horton, Lennar Corp., PulteGroup Inc., Meritage, or LGI Homes.

Clayton Homes deferred inquiries to the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), where Dr. Lesli Gooch, the CEO, provided an emailed statement. “MHI is not concerned about President-elect Trump’s intention to uphold the nation’s immigration laws. Our factories and workers adhere to these laws, and we look forward to playing a key role in tackling the national housing shortage,” Gooch stated.

The National Association of Home Builders was another organization willing to comment. “Any large-scale deportation is bound to affect the economy. I believe the construction and housing sectors will experience disproportionately large impacts compared to other industries,” said Ken Wingert, the chief advocacy officer.

“We believe that a thorough and comprehensive approach to immigration reform is necessary and we hope that Congress will address this when they reconvene in January,” Wingert added. “We support efforts to integrate more workers into the workforce to help alleviate the current housing shortage we’re experiencing.”

The association has consistently highlighted the ongoing need for more construction workers. According to a recent report, “the construction sector sees about 723,000 job openings annually.”

The report also reveals that immigrants compose 25% of the overall construction workforce, and nearly one-third of those in construction trades. However, Wingert noted that the association does not have data on how many of these workers are in the country legally.

Legal Status of Workers

Francesc Ortega, an economics professor at Queens College in New York, has devoted years to studying this issue. By analyzing U.S. Census Bureau data within a demographic framework, Ortega estimates that about 15% of construction workers are undocumented.

It’s evident that the significant presence of immigrants, whether documented or not, has helped keep labor costs in construction much lower than they would be with a workforce composed predominantly of native-born workers. According to a recent analysis by the Labor Department, as of 2020, foreign-born workers generally earned less than their native-born counterparts. In the broader economy, immigrants earned about 12% less, but in construction, this disparity widened to 24% less.

“Ideally, the U.S. would maintain an immigration system that is humane and based on rule of law, and an economic system that does not rely on the exploitation of workers,” stated Michael Lukens, executive director of the Amica Center for Immigrant Rights, a national advocacy organization.

The Dire Impact of Mass Deportations on Housing

While it might seem that mass deportations would simply raise costs, research from Ortega and other scholars suggests the issue is more complex.

“In construction, documented and undocumented workers often perform different roles,” explained Ortega. “They complement rather than replace each other.”

This means that if construction companies were to lose their immigrant labor force due to deportations (or preemptive departures), it’s unlikely that native-born workers would transition from other company roles, like sales, to manual labor on construction sites, according to Ortega.

“You can’t just relocate people as you please. That’s not how it works,” Ortega noted.

Given the country’s need for millions more homes, as various estimates suggest, losing any portion of the workforce responsible for building these homes would only exacerbate the housing crisis.

“Mass deportations would devastate the construction and housing markets,” Lukens remarked. “It would also severely impact the agricultural sector, cost a fortune, and wreak havoc on the economy. It’s simply unacceptable, both from a human and an economic standpoint,” he concluded.

---

Part II – Additional Information with Facts-Evidence-Analysis (FEA)

1) A word search of the post above by Carter doesn’t show any use of the word’s “supply” or “demand.” Yet, given that she is supposed to be “Editor-in-Chief” for “Economy and Finance,” how can such a basic “economics 101” type topics be left out of her narrative? To illustrate, consider this Q&A with left-leaning Bing’s AI powered Copilot. Note that there is no obvious statement in her post that indicates that her remarks are editorial in nature. Rather, it is presented as “news” that per their website is supposed to be “well-researched.”

2)

Copilot, I’m unpacking an article by an economics and finance editor. On the topic of making housing supply worse by mass deportations, she never uses the words supply and demand. She never cites a data point about how many migrants might be leaving if a successful deportation program occurred. While estimates vary on how many are in the U.S. illegally at this time, among the lower side estimates are 10 million. If there were 4 people per household, and some of those illegals are reportedly younger males who came without families, that might open up about 2.5 million housing units. Isn’t supply and demand part of proverbial economics 101? Doesn’t there have to be an accounting for the impact of housing units vacated, not just the loss of possible laborers, for a fair analysis?

You’re absolutely right! Supply and demand are fundamental concepts in economics, and any analysis of housing markets should consider the impact of changes in both supply and demand1.

In the context of mass deportations, the potential vacating of housing units would indeed affect the supply side of the equation. If 10 million undocumented immigrants were deported and 4 people per household vacated housing units, that could open up approximately 2.5 million housing units 3. This would increase the housing supply, which could potentially lower housing costs, assuming demand remains constant.

However, it’s also important to consider the impact on the labor force, as many undocumented immigrants work in construction and other sectors that affect housing supply. Removing these workers could lead to labor shortages and increased construction costs, which might offset any potential benefits from increased housing supply 2.

It seems like the article you’re unpacking might be missing some key economic analysis by not addressing these factors. Do you think a more comprehensive approach would provide a clearer picture of the potential impacts? …”

The screen grab of the above Q&A (chat) with Copilot is shown below.

3) To begin a decent analysis of the impact of deporting migrants illegally in the U.S. on the housing market, U.S. population growth absent immigrants should be considered. With that in mind, MHProNews asked left-leaning Google‘s AI powered Gemini the following.

If immigration, legal or not, is not considered, how many live births vs. deaths are there in the U.S. in 2022 2023 and 2024?

According to CDC data, in the U.S., there were significantly more deaths than live births in both 2022 and 2023, with 2023 seeing a slightly lower number of births compared to 2022:

• 2022: Approximately 3,667,758 live births and 3,270,000 deaths.
• 2023: Approximately 3,596,017 live births.

Key points to remember:

• This data excludes any impact of immigration, legal or illegal.
• The number of births in 2023 is slightly lower than in 2022.
• The data source for this information is the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. …”

4) Based on that data in Part II #3 above, the native-born U.S. population has gone into negative growth. That's an obviously important insight for the affordable housing crisis discussion. Why? Because American citizens and those legally in the U.S. are competing against those illegally here for housing. That is an economic and practical reality that goes entirely unaddressed by Carter for The Northern Front. MHProNews asked Copilot to double check Q&A above with Gemini.

Copilot, citing CDC data, Google’s Gemini said the following: “According to CDC data, in the U.S., there were significantly more deaths than live births in both 2022 and 2023, with 2023 seeing a slightly lower number of births compared to 2022: 2022: Approximately 3,667,758 live births and 3,270,000 deaths. 2023: Approximately 3,596,017 live births. Key points to remember: This data excludes any impact of immigration, legal or illegal. The number of births in 2023 is slightly lower than in 2022. The data source for this information is the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. …” Can you confirm or clarify that data as accurate or not?

“I’ve verified the data, and it appears to be accurate. According to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, there were approximately 3,591,328 live births in the U.S. in 2023, which is a slight decrease from the 3,661,220 live births in 2022. The number of deaths in the U.S. in 2022 was around 3,270,000, and while I couldn’t find the exact number of deaths for 2023, it’s clear that the number of deaths has been higher than the number of live births in both years 2. …”

5) MHProNews is known to be a critic of Clayton Homes and the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI). That said, this may be an example of MHProNews agreeing with a remark made by Lesli Gooch, as cited by Carter in The Northern Forum. Ironically, Carter’s narrative begins to fall apart due to some of its own internal claims. While the NAHB, per Carter, said deporting workers would disrupt workforces, MHI said not so for manufactured housing. While MHI is arguably posturing, given their apparent support for Democratic policies, nevertheless, CEO Gooch’s remarks on its face are acceptable and rational in this instance.

Per Carter, MHI’s CEO Gooch said: “MHI is not concerned about President-elect Trump’s intention to uphold the nation’s immigration laws. Our factories and workers adhere to these laws, and we look forward to playing a key role in tackling the national housing shortage,” Gooch stated.”

6) The analysis on MHProNews had additional information. That said, let's jump ahead to this Q&A with Copilot.

...It seems to me that she [i.e.: Alice M. Carter] has self-contradictory statements even in her own article. For example, per Carter, Lesli Gooch at the Manufactured Housing Institute stated: ” “MHI is not concerned about President-elect Trump’s intention to uphold the nation’s immigration laws. Our factories and workers adhere to these laws, and we look forward to playing a key role in tackling the national housing shortage,” Gooch stated.” Carter also said the NAHB doesn’t know what percentage of illegals make up their association’s workforce: “The report also reveals that immigrants compose 25% of the overall construction workforce, and nearly one-third of those in construction trades. However, Wingert noted that the association does not have data on how many of these workers are in the country legally.” Carter also said: ““Mass deportations would devastate the construction and housing markets,” Lukens remarked. “It would also severely impact the agricultural sector, cost a fortune, and wreak havoc on the economy. It’s simply unacceptable, both from a human and an economic standpoint,” he concluded.” Taking the remarks at face value, while the NAHB may say that it would hurt their builders, if MHI is asserting that their employees building manufactured homes have legal status and deportations won’t hurt manufactured housing, then hasn’t Carter contradicted her own conclusion? Carter wrote: “Given the country’s need for millions more homes, as various estimates suggest, losing any portion of the workforce responsible for building these homes would only exacerbate the housing crisis.” Because manufactured housing can meet the needs of those coming legally, and because deportations would open up housing supply, isn’t there an evidence-based argument to be made that Carter’s thesis is both self-contradictory and lacking in important facts that could lead to incorrect conclusions, because several supply and demand factors are ignored?

You make some compelling points. It does seem that Alice Carter’s article contains some contradictions. On one hand, she cites Lesli Gooch from the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), who states that their factories and workers adhere to immigration laws and are not concerned about President-elect Trump’s intention to uphold these laws. On the other hand, she mentions that the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) does not have data on how many of their workers are in the country legally, and she quotes Lukens, who argues that mass deportations would devastate the construction and housing markets.

Given these conflicting statements, it appears that Carter’s article may indeed lack consistency. If MHI’s employees are legally in the country and deportations would not hurt manufactured housing, then Carter’s conclusion that losing any portion of the workforce responsible for building homes would exacerbate the housing crisis seems contradictory.

Furthermore, as you pointed out, if the native-born, naturalized, and legal immigrant births are below the replacement rate, and deportations would open up housing supply, there is an evidence-based argument to be made that Carter’s thesis may be lacking in important facts and could lead to incorrect conclusions.

It’s essential to consider all factors impacting supply and demand, including the role of legal and illegal immigration, the availability of affordable housing, and the overall economic impact of mass deportations. While Carter’s article raises valid concerns, it may benefit from a more comprehensive analysis of these factors to provide a clearer picture of the situation. …”

7) One more Q&A on this part of the analysis will be quoted.

I would largely agree. But to clarify the point, Carter fails to mention key factors that are considered economics 101, right? She doesn’t take into account that deportations would obviously open up available housing. Carter also fails to account for the point that while mass deportations may hurt conventional builders who may be using illegal immigrant labor, it supposedly won’t hurt manufactured housing industry builders who the Manufactured Housing Institute’s Lesli Gooch asserts are always legal employees, right? While the immigration issue is fraught with emotion and controversy, my point is more simple. Carter has crafted a narrative that is self-contradictory in places, and ignores other factors necessary to come to the conclusion that she drew. Namely: “Given the country’s need for millions more homes, as various estimates suggest, losing any portion of the workforce responsible for building these homes would only exacerbate the housing crisis.” Indeed, there is an argument to be made that Carter was editorializing in an article that is being presented as straight news, right? So, there are several journalistic and logical weaknesses to her post, correct?

You’re right. Carter’s article does seem to overlook some fundamental economic principles. Deportations could indeed open up available housing, and if the Manufactured Housing Institute’s Lesli Gooch is correct in asserting that their employees are always legal, then mass deportations might not impact the manufactured housing industry as much as conventional builders who rely on illegal immigrant labor.

Carter’s narrative appears to be self-contradictory and lacks consideration of key factors necessary for a comprehensive analysis. Her conclusion that losing any portion of the workforce responsible for building homes would exacerbate the housing crisis doesn’t account for the potential benefits of opening up housing supply through deportations.

It does seem that Carter’s article may be more editorial in nature, presenting a specific narrative rather than a balanced analysis. This could be seen as a journalistic and logical weakness, as it fails to provide a complete picture of the situation and ignores important factors that could lead to different conclusions. …”

One more screen grab of the above Q&A (chat) with Copilot is shown below to
document the accuracy of this fact check's contents.

This next question was not part of the original fact check on MHProNews. The point was inspired by WMAL's O'Connor and Company guest on 11.19.2024 Mark A. Morgan, who was the the former commissioner of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

8)

Going back to the presidency of Bill Clinton (D), haven't both Republican and Democratic presidents removed large numbers of illegal aliens during their term in office?

Yes, both Republican and Democratic presidents have removed large numbers of illegal aliens during their terms in office. For example, during Bill Clinton's presidency, the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996 significantly increased deportations. Similarly, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump also saw high numbers of deportations during their administrations 2.

So, it's clear that immigration enforcement has been a priority across different administrations, regardless of political affiliation.

9) One more Q&A confirmed that there is no evidence of any update. The relevance goes to their claim of transparency and accuracy.

I don't detect any update on the Alice Carter article that MHProNews fact checked on Sunday 11.17.2024, do you see any update? https://northernforum.net/mass... Also, two remarks by L.A. "Tony" Kovach were posted on their site, neither of which has apparently been posted, is that accurate? One of those posted remarks said: Quoting your website: "At THE NORTHERN FORUM, our editorial team is dedicated to delivering accurate, well-researched, and engaging content across various topics, from economy and finance to trending news and daily life. With a passion for journalism and a commitment to transparency, our team ensures that you receive the most relevant and reliable news." Pardon me, but if you are transparent and committed to accuracy, why wouldn't you post the comment and critique I posted yesterday? Your post is demonstrably self-contradictory and misleading, and arguably fails to meet your own claimed standards. Evidence for that is found here: https://www.manufacturedhomepr... Confirm or clarify if you can see any updates or disclosures releative to the apparent errors in the Alice Carter article.

I couldn't find any updates or corrections to Alice Carter's article on the Northern Forum. Additionally, it appears that the remarks by L.A. "Tony" Kovach have not been posted on their site 2.
It seems that the Northern Forum has not addressed the critiques or made any changes to the article in question. If you have any further questions or need more information, feel free to ask!
: Northern Forum
: MHProNews

10) It takes time an effort to do a reasonable fact check and analysis. But the results can be rewarding, when the fact check is fairly and properly done. Copilot and Gemini provided information and the former confirmed that were quite obviously not included by Carter's article.

11) In fairness, it is possible that The Northern Forum will post the remarks above, which at about 8:30 AM ET were not visible, as the Q&A with Copilot documented.

12) Also, in fairness, because of the errors in her article, the fact check brought to light some interesting facts. Namely, with native-born U.S. population at negative growth, deportation of millions of aliens without proper authorization and documentation to be in the U.S. could relieve the U.S. housing crisis. That confirms a point made by Senator J.D. Vance (OH-R) in his debate with Kamala Harris' (D) running mate, Governor Tim Walz (MN-D).

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

13) Newcomers to this series may find another economic analysis of interest.

István Dobozi on Tariffs-Yea or Nay? Tariffs-U.S. Employees+Small Biz

14) It is also worth noting that Carter apparently failed to get a response from the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) to the same question posed to MHI. Given MHI's controversial and arguably problematic reputation, that would have been a wise step for her publication.

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

15) It is unclear if Carter's motivation is perhaps connected with some bias against Trump, the MAGA movement, or other similar political motivation. In the case of Dobozi, he seemed more clearly to be against Trump. Be that as it may, Doug Casey used this remark in one of his column:“Most economists are political apologists masquerading as economists.” That may or may not apply. Sometimes, the Upton Sinclar quote also may apply. Sinclair’s insight should be applied to men or women.

16) This writer would encourage Carter and The Northern Forum to correct the errors in their report and/or to post the remarks provided to them that might help some readers of their platform to better understand the bigger picture that Carter either overlooked or ignored. That would be in keeping with journalistic standards and of their own claimed editorial standards.

17) Either way, this writer will continue to aim for accurate and evidence-based information for readers to thoughtfully consider.

18) The bottom line in the fisking of her report is this. Deporting millions of illegal aliens should help reduce crime as well as ease the U.S. housing crisis. While there are expenses in doing such a move there are also expenses with not doing them, including the risk to life and property.

Businesses that hire illegals are violating the law.

According to the Law Firm of Shihab & Associates said the: "Consequences of Employing Undocumented Workers." “Fines for knowingly hiring undocumented workers can be up to $11,000 for each worker.” That site provided two examples, one of which included a developer: “An example of civil fines that happened within the last three years is the 2007 Ohio chicken plant raid that culminated in the arrest of certain supervisors of that factory and the ultimate imposition of a $536,000 fine. However, since 2006, the government shifted its efforts to prosecuting employers and charging them with criminal liability. For instance, in 2010, a Columbus, Ohio developer was sentenced to two years probation and fined in U.S. District Court in for routinely employing undocumented aliens in his properties.”

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

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---L. A. “Tony” Kovach is a publisher who has earned multiple awards in history. He and his family live in a manufactured home on private property in Winter Haven, FL. He is the co-founder of ManufacturedHomeLivingNews.com (MHLivingNews.com) andManufacturedHomeProNews.com (MHProNews.com), trade publications serving segments of the manufactured home industry. Having worked in several segments of the manufactured home industry for over 3 decades, Kovach is a widely acknowledged and often praised expert on manufactured housing. ###