Mirsky's List: Strongest Candidates for President: Canadians for Cruz

The New Hampshire Primary is about a month away, and the 2016 Presidential race has finally transformed from an overpopulated talkfest to a real contest.

While it may have appeared that the race would be taken over by the continuous offensive ramblings of billionaire real estate developer Donald Trump, we may now be facing a new version of Donald Trump, which should cause concern to those in the Democratic Party who think they can vote for someone with no national electability whatsoever, like Bernie Sanders.

So here is my current snapshot of the election:

REPUBLICANS

1. Donald Trump, reality show star and outspoken representative of the celebrity class. Just saw Trump on TV. He is talking about North Korea’s situation with their recent explosion of a nuclear device. Trump appears to have finally obtained some real foreign policy briefing and is speaking clearly about this issue. Trump is saying, correctly, in my view, that we have to deal with the problem of North Korea by dealing more effectively with China, North Korea’s sponsor. So Trump is finally getting serious. This could be a problem for all the other GOP candidates. (For my views on Trump, check my prior posts on Exeter Patch. Trump still has a lot of explaining to do about things he has said.)
2. Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas. Ted Cruz has the best TV ad of all the GOP candidates on New Hampshire television at this moment. The ad features Cruz speaking directly to the camera, to the voters of New Hampshire, and states clearly and directly the candidate’s positions. If you can do that and be convincing, you can win in New Hampshire. As far as Trump’s efforts to discredit Cruz because Cruz was born in Canada, that just won’t fly here in New Hampshire. Many New Hampshire residents were born in Canada; Canada is very close to New Hampshire, on our border in fact, and most New Hampshire residents do not think of Canada as a separate country. On the other hand, most New Hampshire residents DO think of New York City, where Trump was born, as a separate country.
3. Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida. I mention Rubio this high on my list because of his consistent strong polling numbers. But thus far his performance here in New Hampshire has been restrained. Perhaps he is holding something back. Rubio should hurry up and show what he‘s got before it’s too late. He looks very young on TV. Rubio is likely a much more serious person than he has presented to the voters of New Hampshire. Marco Rubio is clearly knowledgeable about foreign policy. Unlike Trump, Rubio has demonstrated knowledge about the status of U.S. nuclear capabilities. I’m waiting for Rubio to demonstrate that he also understands how military strength and diplomacy can interact and help us to achieve our objectives without going to war.
4. John Kasich, Governor of Ohio. John Kasich has established himself firmly as a moderate Republican candidate. He has the support of important New Hampshire Republicans, including Doug and Stella Scamman of Stratham. (Doug Scamman is former NH Speaker of the House; Stella Scamman is a former long-term NH House Member and educator; both are strong leaders of the NH GOP.) Kasich has a chance to win.
5. Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida. Jeb Bush is on the rise. He has the support of former U.S. Senator Judd Gregg, which means access to a strong network of support. Bush also has the background and access to knowledge of how these contests are won. Bush is personable and obviously qualified; his biggest problem is that there are too many other candidates with similar views in this race.
6. Carly Fiorina, former CEO of computer giant Hewlett-Packard. Carly Fiorina is very popular among Republicans in New Hampshire. You may not have noticed this because of an over reliance in the media on polling data (which has been encouraged by Trump, because he knows how to gain support in the polls, even if that support is not completely real). Do not count Fiorina out. She could win the whole thing in the last debate.
7. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey. Chris Christie has made the strongest effort among all the candidates to win here in New Hampshire, but has never made an effective statement as to why the people of New Hampshire should vote for a Governor who may have stopped traffic on a major bridge just to get back at his political enemies. If Christie can answer that question, he would have a chance.

DEMOCRATS

1. Hillary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State, former U.S. Senator from New York, former First Lady during the Bill Clinton Administration. I am supporting Clinton, so I may not be the best judge of this, but it appears to me that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is getting stronger. She has the strongest organization on the ground here in New Hampshire, she is speaking directly to voters’ concerns, and her opposition is very weak.
2. Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont. The most important and powerful Democratic leader in Vermont is former Gov. Howard Dean. Dean is articulate, was responsible for making the Democratic Party more responsive to progressive concerns, helped to bring us universal health care coverage, and is a very honorable man. Dean is supporting Clinton. If you look at the GOP candidates listed in this article, you will notice that there are several who could be very effective general election candidates. So if you think it doesn’t matter that Sanders has zero popularity when you move away from the Vermont border, think again. Otherwise, I will say that Sanders has been effective in raising the issue of economic fairness in America.
3. Martin O’Malley, former Governor of Maryland. We are still waiting for Governor O’Malley to demonstrate his greatest strengths. So far, O’Malley has not been very successful, but only time will tell.

Stay tuned. This thing is just getting started ...

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