Mirsky's List of the Strongest Candidates for President: First Frost 2015

Here in New Hampshire people have pretty much had enough of Election 2016, so it will take a special kind of campaign and a special kind of candidate to make any headway from here on out. Some of the candidates have made progress, but it remains to be seen what will happen on Primary Day (expected to occur on Tuesday, February 9, 2016). If you’ve been watching political contests over the years, you probably realize that everything changes in the last month or so before an election. So we can look at certain apparently immutable facts about the campaign at present, but it’s clear that nobody really knows what will happen once the caucus voting begins in the school gymnasiums of Iowa. Everything can work like a chain reaction, producing unforeseen results.
So with all that in mind, here is my current snapshot of the candidates as seen by one blogger from Exeter, New Hampshire.

DEMOCRATS
1. Hillary Clinton, former U.S. Secretary of State, former U.S. Senator from New York, former two-term First Lady in the Bill Clinton Adminstration (1993-2000). The Republican Party machinery has given Hillary Clinton a great boost by making her a target of investigation and extended television exposure on a subject matter which is her strength, i.e., her knowledge and experience in the area of foreign policy. The House Republican Benghazi Committee had its last hurrah last week, giving Secretary Clinton the opportunity to demonstrate tremendous reserves of patience, tenacity, and strength, in handling the awkwardly nasty attacks of Republican Committee members who questioned Hillary Clinton over an 11-hour period without any apparent strategy or goal. If Hillary Clinton is elected President in 2016, everyone will look back on the House Republican Benghazi Committee as having been responsible for making it all possible. Rarely does a Presidential Candidate get 11 continuous hours of television exposure. The most direct impact of that event was to convince those Democrats who had not fully decided to support Hillary Clinton that she is one of them, she is a progressive Democrat who is leading the charge from the front lines against the reactionary, anti-Progressive elements of current American politics. That was a major accomplishment.

2. Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont. Bernie Sanders has lost much of his flair, having been so thoroughly captured in the accurate impersonation by Larry David (co-creator of the “Seinfeld” TV situation comedy) on NBC’s “Saturday Night Live” television comedy program. The most significant aspect of the impersonation is that it makes Bernie Sanders appear like a person who is not really focused on the seriousness or the intensity of the responsibility of being President. The same thing occurred in 2008 when Tina Fey impersonated Sarah Palin. (In future years, candidates may want to consider doing something to limit the influence of that TV show.)

3. Martin O’Malley, former Governor of Maryland, former Mayor of Baltimore. Governor O’Malley has an opportunity to do something in the 2016 elections, because he is still in the game. But thus far, though he has not been forced out of action, he has done very little to present himself as a potential Commander-in-Chief. This may change.

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REPUBLICANS
1. Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida, brother and son of former U.S. Presidents. Jeb Bush has apparently scaled back his campaign efforts around the country to focus on New Hampshire and Iowa. That is a good idea. Bush would benefit from the strength and number of some of the far right candidates in the GOP, as he has a clear opening to victory if he can capture a large majority of the base of Moderate Independent and Republican Voters, which is a large group of the Primary Vote here in New Hampshire. In order to win, here in New Hampshire at least, Jeb Bush will have to start speaking with more authority and clarity on what he would do to bring this country together and improve the economy. Many may have questions about the idea of a member of the Bush family improving the economy, so that will require a great effort.

2. John Kasich, former Governor of Ohio, former long-time Member of Congress. John Kasich’s campaign has not caught fire here in New Hampshire or anywhere else, but you have to look at the people who are supporting him here, some very important local Republicans are in his camp, Doug and Stella Scamman, Tom Rath, John H. Sununu. That has to count for something. Kasich is a candidate who would do very well in the General Election, because he holds very moderate policy positions, but may not be capable of appearing crazy enough to break through the GOP pack of candidates the way things are going so far.

3. Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida. Rubio has a shot at this thing, but thus far he has not made a strong impression.

4. Chris Christie, Governor of New Jersey. Chris Christie has the talent and is making sufficient effort to do well in the New Hampshire Primary. But many question whether he had a role in the George Washington Bridge shenanigans that occurred on his watch in New Jersey. Christie would need to address that issue in order to have a real chance to succeed.

5. Donald Trump and Ben Carson. While these two individuals appear to be at the top of opinion polls right now, I don’t see them as having a real chance to win here in New Hampshire, where people just do not care that much about what people say and do on TV. In New Hampshire, voters would like to know what a candidate really intends to do, what they have done in the past, and whether they are capable of delivering on their promises. It’s hard to win in New Hampshire if you are not really cut out for governance.