Super El Niño Could Combine With Rare Atlantic Niña, Potentially Reshaping Winter

A rare Atlantic Niña developing as a powerful El Niño builds in the Pacific could help suppress Atlantic hurricanes and offer early clues about winter weather, according to a recent analysis.

The two events involve opposite ocean temperature patterns in different parts of the world, but their effects on the atmosphere may work in the same direction, according to a July 16 analysis by Severe Weather Europe.

The analysis described the combination as an “atmospheric shield” that could produce stronger wind shear, sinking air, higher pressure and less rainfall in parts of the Atlantic where hurricanes develop. It also examined possible connections to the jet stream and polar vortex during the winter of 2026-27.

Here are seven things to know:

What’s An Atlantic Niña?

Atlantic Niña is the cool phase of a natural climate pattern in the eastern equatorial Atlantic known as the Atlantic zonal mode.

It is similar in concept to the much better-known El Niño and La Niña cycle in the Pacific, but it occurs over a smaller area and typically lasts for a shorter period.

To qualify as an Atlantic Niña, average sea-surface temperatures in the monitored region generally must remain at least 0.5 degrees Celsius, or 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit, below normal for at least two overlapping three-month periods, according to NOAA.

Tropical Atlantic Has Cooled Rapidly

Severe Weather Europe said a broad stretch of the equatorial Atlantic was running about 1 to 3 degrees Celsius below normal in mid-July.

If that cooling persists and the seasonal average falls below the Atlantic Niña threshold, the event would be only the sixth summer Atlantic Niña recorded in more than 40 years of data, according to the analysis.

The cooling is associated with stronger trade winds that pull surface water away from the equator, allowing colder water from deeper in the ocean to rise to the surface in a process called upwelling.

El Niño Builds In The Pacific

At the same time, much warmer-than-normal water is spreading across the equatorial Pacific as a strong El Niño develops.

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a recurring Pacific climate pattern that can alter winds, rainfall and temperatures around the world.

Severe Weather Europe said parts of the Pacific El Niño region were already 3 to 4 degrees Celsius above normal, with some forecast areas showing even larger departures.

In June, the private weather service AccuWeather said rapidly developing El Niño could reshape U.S. weather patterns, increasing heavy-rain and flooding risks in parts of the Southwest and Southeast while worsening drought and wildfire concerns in the Northwest, Plains and Upper Midwest.

What’s The Combined Effect?

Atlantic Niña and El Niño are ocean opposites, but both may discourage hurricane development.

Cooler Atlantic waters can be associated with higher pressure, sinking air and fewer thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic. El Niño typically increases upper-level winds over the Atlantic, producing wind shear that can disrupt developing storms.

Severe Weather Europe said forecast models showed below-normal rainfall and above-normal pressure across portions of the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf during August, near the beginning of the busiest part of hurricane season.

NOAA Climate.gov has previously said Atlantic Niña may have a dampening effect on hurricane activity, although scientists continue to study how strongly the pattern affects tropical storms.

Hurricane Risks Don’t Disappear

A less active Atlantic season does not mean the risk of hurricanes, tropical storms or remnants is nonexistent.

Severe Weather Europe noted that Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida as a category 5 storm in 1992 despite an otherwise quiet, El Niño-suppressed hurricane season.

Coastal states still face risks from storm surge, damaging winds, tornadoes and flooding when tropical systems approach or make landfall and can continue producing flooding, tornadoes and damaging winds hundreds of miles after moving inland.

Pattern May Offer Early Winter Clues

The same large-scale atmospheric conditions favoring El Niño, Atlantic Niña and a quieter hurricane season could also influence the jet stream this fall and winter.

That does not mean a quiet hurricane season causes a particular winter pattern. Severe Weather Europe said the ocean conditions and hurricane activity are better viewed as indicators of broader changes already taking place in the atmosphere.

Southern states: El Niño winters often favor a more active southern storm track, increasing the chances of wetter conditions across parts of the South.

Northern states: El Niño winters often lean milder across parts of the northern United States, although outbreaks of Arctic cold and heavy snow remain possible.

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states: El Niño can strengthen the southern storm track, but winter conditions depend on whether individual storms encounter enough cold air to produce snow instead of rain.

Midwest states: El Niño winters often tilt milder across parts of the Midwest, but the pattern does not rule out sharp cold snaps, heavy snow or ice storms. Winter conditions will depend on the position of the jet stream and the tracks of individual storm systems.

Western states: El Niño can shift Pacific storm tracks, but its effects vary widely across the West. Conditions will depend on the strength and position of the jet stream and individual storms.

The Polar Vortex Connection

Severe Weather Europe also found that quieter hurricane seasons have sometimes been followed by warmer conditions in the stratosphere and a weaker or disrupted polar vortex.

The polar vortex is a broad circulation of strong winds high above the Arctic. When it weakens, cold air may be more likely to move south into parts of the United States.

The analysis does not suggest that hurricane activity directly affects the polar vortex. Rather, both may respond to the same broad shifts in global atmospheric patterns.

Whether that translates into a colder or snowier winter will depend on how El Niño, the jet stream and other climate patterns evolve over the coming months.