2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What It Means In Virginia

VIRGINIA — Conditions seem favorable for Virginia to escape hurricanes this year, according to AccuWeather’s 2023 Atlantic hurricane forecast released Wednesday.

Overall, the private weather company said, it looks as if 2023 will be less active than the majority of seasons since 1995 and near the historical average of 11 to 15 named storms. People in Northeast states are the least likely to see devastating hurricanes this season and, as is typical, Florida is the most at risk.

AccuWeather said between four and eight of the forecast storms could reach hurricane-strength, and up to three of them could become major hurricanes — that is, those with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Last year, officials in Virginia Beach and Portsmouth declared a local state of emergency when the remnants of Hurricane Ian brought flooding to the region.

Ian's leftovers also forced the U.S. Navy to postpone the first deployment of the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford, the nation’s most advanced aircraft carrier, The Associated Press reported.

Virginia Hurricane History

In September 2019, Tropical Storm Dorian caused flooding to coastal areas of the Commonwealth and some evacuations.

Tropical Storm Isaias in August 2020 brought heavy winds, rain and multiple tornadoes to southeastern Virginia. The region bore the brunt of the storm's 70-mph winds as it exited North Carolina. In Hampton Roads, more than 250,000 customers lost power.

In July 2021, Tropical Storm Elsa dumped several inches of rain on Hampton Roads and central Virginia. A tornado touched down and caused some damage to buildings in Suffolks.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency as Tropical Depression Ida passed over the coast in July 2021, dropping a few inches of rain in the Hampton Roads area.

On Aug. 19, 1969, Hurricane Camille hit the state overnight and caused massive inland flooding and mudslides that killed 153 people. The storm remains Virginia's deadliest natural disaster 50 years later, the agency said.

Camille dropped 27 inches of rain — what is typically six months of precipitation — on Nelson County overnight. More than 100 bridges, roads or railways were washed away or damaged, and more than 900 buildings and structures damaged or destroyed in Virginia.

"Camille reminds us that hurricanes are a statewide threat, not just a coastal concern, as the worst damage occurred hundreds of miles inland," the agency said.

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast

“Based on climatology and an evolving El Niño pattern during August through October, the highest chance for direct and significant impacts will be from the Florida Panhandle around the entire state of Florida to the Carolina coast,” Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. “There appears to be a lower chance for direct impacts over the western Gulf of Mexico and for the Northeast U.S."

AccuWeather said that among the factors influencing the hurricane seasons is the expected transition to El Nino — which can produce wind shears that deter the development of tropical storm development. Other factors include rising sea surface temperatures in tropical hotbeds of the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, and the strength of the African easterly jet wind pattern, AccuWeather said.

The forecast also considers 30-year averages from 1990 to 2020, with a focus on years with years with similar current and expected weather patterns. The years used for comparison were 2006 and 2009, years with a below-average number of Atlantic storms; and 2012 and 2018, years with a higher-than-normal number of named storms.

Among them were Superstorm Sandy, a late-season storm that wreaked havoc on mid-Atlantic states in 2012, and, in 2018, Hurricane Florence, which unleashed a historic deluge on the Carolinas; and Hurricane Michael, an intense Category 5 storm that hit the Florida Panhandle with force.

• Related: Here Are The 2023 Hurricane And Tropical Storm Names

The Atlantic hurricane season starts in about two months, but AccuWeather noted that the curveballs thrown in 2022 are a reminder of the importance up and down the coast to prepare for anything. Despite a moderate to strong La Nina that was foreboding of a much stormier season, 2022 was much calmer than 2021 and 2020, both La Nina years.

“Even if this season were to turn out to be less active than normal, abundant warm water could lead to the development of a couple of very strong hurricanes, as we saw with Ian,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist and hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said in a story on the weather company’s website.

“Anyone living near or at the coast must have a hurricane plan in place to deal with what could be a life-threatening or very damaging hurricane,” he said. “Now is the time to create or update your plan.”