VA, DC 2022 Hurricane Season Forecast: What To Know

VIRGINIA — The District of Columbia, Virginia and the rest of the East Coast should stock up on bottled water, flashlights and batteries now because we could be headed into a busy hurricane season in 2022, forecasters say.

Weather analysts at Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science in Fort Collins estimate that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one that produces 19 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes (reaching wind speeds of 111 mph and up).

"If the model goes as predicted, this would be our seventh above-normal hurricane season in a row," said research scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach at CSU.

Major hurricanes are category 3, 4 and 5 storms on the Saffir/Simpson scale. They have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

AccuWeather forecasters released predictions for the coming season last month, noting that there is a high chance for a preseason storm to develop and that another active tropical season is expected.

Experts said people should prepare sooner rather than later given the likelihood of preseason storms.

""The 2021 tropical year was … prolific with 21 named storms, making it the third most active on record in terms of named systems," AccuWeather meteorologists wrote. "It also forced meteorologists to use the entirety of the designated storm name list for the second straight season."

In addition to the projected number of named storms, CSU also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall in its annual report. For the 2017 season, it predicts the following probabilities for major storm landfall:

• 75 percent probability for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula
• 56 percent for the Gulf Coast, from the Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas
• 54 percent for North Carolina

The National Hurricane Center in Miami has released the list of names for upcoming tropical storms and hurricanes. Storm names include Fiona, Gaston, Earl, Julia and Walter.

Related: 2022 Hurricane Names List Released For Atlantic Season

The hurricane center is urging residents living along the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern seaboard to begin preparing for the 2022 hurricane season. The areas covered include the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

NOAA called the 2021 hurricane season "above-average," having produced 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), including seven hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater) of which four were major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

Last year was the third most active year on record in terms of named storms, it marked the sixth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, and was the first time on record that two consecutive hurricane seasons exhausted the list of 21 storm names.

In 2020's record-setting hurricane season, Hurricane Zeta formally reached the end of the United Nation's backup list of Greek letters for the first time as the 27th named storm of the year, NBC reported.

The season peaks each year between mid-August and mid-October. The period is described as the "season within the season" by forecasters. This eight-week period "is often the most active and dangerous time for tropical cyclone activity," NOAA explained on its website.

Scientists attribute the heightened hurricane activity in recent years to the warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation that began in 1995 and favors more, stronger and longer-lasting storms.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is thought to be driven by a combination of internal climate variability and changes over time in small airborne particles, often referred to as aerosols, over the North Atlantic.

Over 20 storms could hit the U.S. if the currently weak La Nina intensifies later this year. Above-normal sea surface temperatures could also play a role in preseason storm development, forecasters said.

Virginia Hurricane History

In September 2019, Tropical Storm Dorian caused flooding to coastal areas of the Commonwealth and some evacuations.

The Virginia Department of Emergency Management reminded Commonwealth residents that hurricanes can affect much of the state.

On Aug. 19, 1969, Hurricane Camille hit the state overnight and caused massive inland flooding and mudslides that killed 153 people. The storm remains Virginia's deadliest natural disaster 50 years later, the agency said.

Camille dropped 27 inches of rain — what is typically six months of precipitation — on Nelson County overnight. More than 100 bridges, roads or railways were washed away or damaged, and more than 900 buildings and structures damaged or destroyed in Virginia.

"Camille reminds us that hurricanes are a statewide threat, not just a coastal concern, as the worst damage occurred hundreds of miles inland," the agency said.

Residents readying for the upcoming season can get tips and advice on the federal government's Ready.gov website.

To keep up with potential storm activity, bookmark the National Hurricane Center's website.