2022 Fall Forecast: See What’s In Store This Autumn

ACROSS AMERICA — As much of the country swelters through the dog days of summer, it’s hard to fathom that meteorological autumn is less than a month away. But forecasters are already releasing their predictions for when Americans can expect weather perfect for hoodies and pumpkin spice everything.

Meteorological autumn kicks off Sept. 1 and continues through Nov. 30. While autumn doesn’t officially start until the Sept. 22 equinox, forecasters use consistent dates each year to easily compare one season to another.

AccuWeather recently released its 2022 fall forecast, which predicts the season’s weather using data from computer models and also analyzes weather patterns around the globe and past years.

After combining these factors, the AccuWeather team condensed its seasonal outlook into one word: warm.

“With pretty good confidence this year, I think it's a mild fall setting up overall for the U.S.,” AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

Is your region in for an unseasonably warm autumn accompanied by bonfires and trips to the apple orchard?

Here’s what some parts of the country could expect:

• In September, millions of residents in the Northeast and Midwest won’t feel much of a change when it comes to temperature. Expect the first frost of the season to arrive one or two weeks earlier than normal across the Upper Midwest and upstate New York.

• For the third consecutive year, La Niña will supercharge the Atlantic hurricane season, which will lead to a higher threat of tropical systems making landfall this autumn.

• Drought conditions are expected to ease across the Northeast, Midwest and Southeast. However, abnormally dry conditions will remain throughout most of the central United States in places like Texas, eastern New Mexico, and western Kansas.

• Widespread and long-term drought is expected to fuel another active wildfire season in the West. The worst of the fires are expected to develop in areas different than 2021.

See AccuWeather’s full 2022 fall forecast.