VA Governor's Race Leader: What Latest Polls Show

Democrats hold a commanding lead in the race for governor and a slim lead in the lieutenant governor's contest, according to polls for both offices released in recent days before Virginia voters cast their ballots on Tuesday.

But with Congressional redistricting in the works in Virginia, which could deliver more Democratic seats to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections, the governor's race has taken on extra importance.

Polls released in the last two weeks all give Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger a double-digit lead in the governor's race. The newest poll, released on Sunday, Nov. 2, by The Hill/Emerson shows Spanberger with 56% of support to Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears at 44%.

To that end, former President Barack Obama campaigned for Spanberger on Saturday in Norfolk. Whether the former congresswoman wins or her GOP opponent Earle-Sears is the victor, Virginia will make history Tuesday by electing the Commonwealth's first woman as governor.

• RELATED: Virginia Governor's Race Will Test Trump And Democrats Nationally — And Make History

Obama's remarks focused on what he argued is the President Donald Trump’s “lawlessness and recklessness” and “shambolic” economic policy. Obama urged voters to “set a glorious example for the nation” by rejecting nominees loyal to a president with “autocratic impulses.”

“The stakes are now clear,” Obama told Virginians. “We don't need to speculate about the dangers to our democracy. We don't need to ask ourselves how much more coarse and mean our culture can become. Elections matter, and they matter to you.”

Polling Highlights

Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 50% to 43% in a survey by the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University released Oct. 27.

A Roanoke College poll out Oct. 27 shows Spanberger with a 10-point lead over Earle-Sears, the Virginia Mercury said.

A Washington Post-George Mason University poll released Oct. 20 gave Spanberger an edge of 54% to 42%.

In all, nine public opinion polls done for the governor's race give the Democrat an overall average of 52.1 percent support to 43.2 percent for the current lieutenant governor, said Real Clear Politics.

“Like most elections, this one will be determined by voter turnout and how independents vote,” Harry Wilson, interim director of IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College told the Virginia Mercury. “While Spanberger appears to have maximized her Democratic support, Earle-Sears could slightly increase her support among Republicans, and she needs to make more inroads with independents with very little time left to do so.”

During a campaign stop in Virginia over the weekend, former President Barack Obama took care not to blame voters who backed Trump in 2024 because of inflation and a turbulent economy.

Spanberger has focused her campaign on her bipartisan efforts representing a Republican-leaning Northern Virginia district in Congress, The Washington Post said.

Trump spent the weekend at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, leaving Earle-Sears to campaign for herself. He has said — without naming Earle-Sears — that he backs her Virginia bid.

Earle-Sears did not mention Trump at all as she campaigned with term-limited Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican. “We are not going back,” she said, arguing for conservative continuity in Purcellville. “There's only darkness back there. Abigail Spanberger represents the darkness.”

In multiple small-town stops, Earle-Sears promised to lower taxes, defend parents' ability to shape education policy and stave off unions and business regulations. “I'm for common sense,” she said in Northern Virginia.

Spanberger kept to her more circumspect style regarding Trump, pairing economic arguments against his policies with more opaque references to the president's moves that upend democratic norms.

“Virginia voters can and will send a message amid the recklessness and the heartlessness coming out of Washington,” she said ahead of Obama. She criticized “the political turmoil coming out of Washington right now” and introduced Obama by recalling “a time not that long ago … when we had a president … who worked to bring us together instead of tearing us apart.”

Earle-Sears has emphasized culture war issues, opposing transgender students in schools, undocumented immigrants, and diversity programs at universities and state agencies, a Washington Post story said.

Youngkin told rallygoers at the Earle-Sears event Saturday: “We cannot let this happen. We must win on Tuesday. We have to get this done on Tuesday. The consequences can be fabulous or they can be bad.”

Candidates Set To Make VA History

To vote on Election Day, head to your assigned polling place between 6 a.m. and 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 4. Use the Virginia Department of Elections citizen portal to find your polling place. An acceptable form of ID is required to vote in person.

Some voters have already cast ballots through early voting or mail-in ballots. Early in-person voting ran through Nov. 1. The deadline to return a mail ballot is 7 p.m. on Nov. 4. Mailed ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 4 and received by noon on the Friday following the election. Completed ballots can be returned by mail or at any polling place on Election Day from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Spanberger plays down the historic nature of her campaign for Virginia governor and avoids making big, bold promises about what she will accomplish if elected. Yet some believe the moderate approach — others call it boring — that the former congresswoman and CIA case officer has taken heading into Tuesday's election holds the key to the Democratic Party's national revival, an Associated Press analysis said.

Earle-Sears has tried to paint her Democratic opponent as an out-of-touch liberal more concerned about transgender rights and immigrants who are in the United States illegally than she is about the safety of school children. That playbook worked for Trump in the last presidential election. But given the national security background of Spanberger, it is unclear whether that will work Tuesday.

Spanberger has held a financial advantage throughout the campaign, bringing in about $66 million over the course of her campaign, compared to about $35 million for Earle-Sears. The Democrat entered the final two-week stretch of the campaign with about $4.1 million remaining in the bank, compared to $1.3 million for the Republican.

Spanberger pledged to tackle rising consumer costs. On Saturday, she criticized Trump's Department of Government Efficiency and the ongoing federal shutdown — both of which have a disproportionate impact in a state with more than 300,000 federal employees, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Earle-Sears has pinned the shutdown on Spanberger, arguing the former congresswoman should use her leverage with Virginia's Democratic U.S. senators. Both have voted against the GOP's spending extension bill as Democrats demand Republicans address looming health care cuts.

The contest could offer some clues as to whether social issues carry any less weight with voters than in previous elections.

Spanberger has touted her support for abortion rights, doing so in the last Southern state not to impose new restrictions or bans in recent years. Earle-Sears did not mention her opposition to abortion rights Saturday but has said repeatedly that Spanberger is an extremist on transgender rights — attacks similar to those that Trump wielded effectively against Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024.

Other Statewide Races

The race for lieutenant governor features Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi of Richmond and Republican talk-radio host John Reid. Hashmi prevailed in a crowded June Democratic primary, while Reid was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Reid’s campaign got off to a rocky start when Youngkin called on him to withdraw from the race after allegations surfaced linking Reid to a social media account containing sexually explicit photos. Reid has denied any involvement with the account.

Controversy has also swirled in the race for state attorney general, where Republican incumbent Miyares seeks a second term. His challenger is former Democratic state Del. Jones, who in text messages from 2022 suggested, among other things, that a prominent Republican lawmaker get “two bullets to the head.”

Jones has apologized for the messages, but the issue has been a major topic not only in the race for attorney general but also at the top of the ticket. Earle-Sears has criticized Spanberger on the campaign trail and in television ads for not calling on Jones to withdraw from the race.

The Roanoke College poll found that 80% of likely voters have heard or read about 2022 text messages in which Jones fantasized about shooting then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert, a Republican. Among those who said they already voted for Jones, 87% said they would have supported him anyway, while 1% said they would have switched their vote to Miyares.

Hashmi leads Republican John Reid 42% to 40% in the lieutenant governor’s race, while Miyares holds an 8-point edge, 46% to 38%, over Jones, according to Real Clear Politics.

In the lieutenant governor’s contest, Hashmi, D-Richmond, holds a narrow 47% to 45% edge over Reid, a conservative talk-show host. The polls show 7% say they are undecided or don’t know who they will vote for, and 1% say they will vote for someone else.

The attorney general’s race remains a virtual tie. Miyares leads Jones by a single point, 46%-to-45%, the Roanoke College poll said.

The Hill/Emerson poll shows Miyares only trailing Jones by 2 percent, 51% to 49%.

The Associated Press contributed reporting.