Politics & Government

Longshots, Safe Bets, The Bern Surge? All Eyes Are On NH Primary

After the Iowa Caucus Monday, it will be a chaotic 8-day sprint to New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary — and it's anyone's race.

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Scenes from the 2020 New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary.
Scenes from the 2020 New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary. (Tony Schinella | Patch, Paula Tracy | InDepthNH.org )

CONCORD, NH — For the next week and change, it will be do-or-die time for most of the 2020 presidential candidates. Voters in Iowa caucus Monday. And then, what has been a relatively sleepy primary, will turn into an eight-day political circus, of sorts, for the candidates with life left, as they attempt to stop what some believe (and poll numbers show) to be a surging U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, the independent democratic socialist from Vermont.

The primary process in New Hampshire is pretty easy: If you want to vote, you show up and vote. It's an "open" primary, meaning voters not affiliated with either political party can choose either ballot.

Caucusing, however, is a different process entirely, and it's both compelling and cumbersome. Campaigns attempt to win delegates by achieving 15 percent of attendees who are members of a political party across nearly 1,700 precincts. If a candidate doesn't win 15 percent of those in attendance, their supporters can caucus for another candidate and help boost them or sit out the rest of the process. The results are tabulated and delegates awarded accordingly.

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Unlike the relatively simple get-out-the-vote strategies with a primary — bombard voters with ads, phone calls, direct mail, etc. — for a caucus, it can sometimes consist of physically dragging as many bodies as possible to the precinct location. In other words, it can take a lot of time and effort, and the best organized campaigns are often the triumphant ones.

And this year, they start caucusing at 4 p.m. on a Monday ... and the weather can also be a factor: Snow and freezing drizzle is expected in most of the state around the same time the caucus starts.

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Historically, many presidential dreams have been dashed in the cornfields of Iowa, with some topsy-turvy results, too. There is a good chance the field will be culled by 12:01 a.m. Tuesday. At the same time, with so much at stake, no matter what the polls say, New Hampshire voters can expect a full fleet of candidates to be at their doors first thing Tuesday morning.

A screenshot of the RealClearPolitics.com average for the last two weeks of polling in Iowa.

Is It Truly A 4- Or 5-Way Race?

Both Iowa and New Hampshire appear to be four- or five-way races between Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, with U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-MN, a few lengths behind the others. Klobuchar, at this point in the race, appears to be the dark horse. She has received many newspaper endorsements including the state's largest newspaper, the New Hampshire Union Leader, the Seacoast Media Group papers (the Portsmouth Herald, Fosters Daily Democrat, and others), and the Keene Sentinel. The Concord Monitor, whose editorial board has been featured on C-Span during many presidential cycles, announced in its Sunday Monitor edition, in a column by Editor Steve Leone, that it would not be making an endorsement, due to staffing limitations — shocking many readers.

Iowa and New Hampshire almost always deliver at least one surprise (if not more) so other candidates like Andrew Yang, U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and Tom Steyer, can't completely be counted out just yet.

But some primary watchers believe the race is really between two candidates: Biden and Sanders.

"There will be some mini ups and downs," said Michael Graham, a political editor at InsideSources.com, which hosts the NH Journal website. "But that's where we are headed."

Wayne Lesperance, the vice president of academic affairs at New England College, said the non-Senate candidates who took the opportunity to campaign as hard as they could during the Senate impeachment trial of President Donald Trump may see some bounce.

"It's a long shot, but Gabbard, Yang, and Steyer (have had) unprecedented and largely uncontested access to voters in Iowa and New Hampshire," he said. "This is their shot."

Steve MacDonald, an editor at the conservative GraniteGrok.com site, said he was "less optimistic" that it was a multi-candidate field.

"I think it has always been Biden's nomination to lose — but Bernie owns New Hampshire," he said. "Buttigieg is the 'not Biden'; Klobuchar is the 'not Warren.' As such, they will run while they have money but won't win. No one else matters."

MacDonald added while Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire in 2016, he seems to be surging "after the CNN Warren hit" — a pre-debate leaked story where Warren accused Sanders of saying a woman couldn't win the presidency. Sanders was questioned about it, denied it, and after the debate, as Sanders went to shake her hand, Warren confronted him, accusing him of calling her a liar on national television.

The post-debate clip was viral for days and was probably seen by millions.

"Warren is done except as perhaps a potential VP (though I doubt that)," MacDonald said.

Peter Burling, a former state Senator and Democratic National Committee member who is supporting Klobuchar, said she has run "an almost perfect campaign," but wonders if Iowa can help her momentum that she is seeing in New Hampshire.

"The only thing I know to be true: no one can predict what will happen next," he said.

A screenshot of the RealClearPolitics.com average for the last two weeks of polling in New Hampshire.

Other Candidates, A Brokered Convention?

There are other candidates in the race including former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, who is crisscrossing New Hampshire in a bus, meeting with voters in small collectives, and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is skipping the early states and spending hundreds of millions of dollars on ads in Super Tuesday states — an almost Hail Mary attempt to collect delegates or hope for a brokered convention.

Lesperance described Patrick as "a thoughtful candidate" who had "a message" and "excellent delivery" but started too late.

"Had he gotten in earlier, I imagine he would have been taken seriously," he said.

Burling wryly agreed, "And Governor Patrick, as good as he is, seems to me to have utterly missed the train."

Graham had a much harsher view of Patrick.

"(He) is the new Beto O'Rourke of the campaign," he said. "After years of 'he's an amazing political talent' and 'when he speaks people swoon,' we're now seeing Patrick on a level playing field. In Mass., he was always running downhill with the wind at his back. Now, it's just Deval and, well, the results speak for themselves. He's scored a perfect Bluto Blutarsky in the polls: Zero. Point. Zero."

MacDonald said Patrick wasn't really running for president but "for a podium spot at the convention" or maybe a cabinet position but, "Depending on who wins in 2020, he might be back for a more serious try in four or eight years."

Bloomberg, however, could cause problems for Democrats as the race progresses.

"Bloomberg is one of the candidates whose future is unknown, but Super Tuesday is not far away, and he can afford to spend a billion bucks easily," Burling said. "If Biden comes out the winner in the first three contests, then Bloomberg becomes the only viable alternative. Wow."

Lesperance said Bloomberg's impact remains to be seen.

"If there is a significant stumble by Biden in the coming weeks or as a result of Iowa and/or NH, then look for moderate voters to turn to Bloomberg," he said. "But, that's a big IF."

Instead, a Biden freefall could benefit Klobuchar because voters in future states will be taking a second look, Lesperance added.

"I don't think Bloomberg has a path to the nomination absent some sort of calamity in the race," he said. "And, I suspect, he regrets not getting in earlier. He certainly would have been competitive."

MacDonald said, money aside, Bloomberg's main issue is that he was not likable or a better bet than Biden or Sanders.

"Same for Steyer," he said. "He has money but he's annoying. His oversaturation ad campaign irritated most young voters I know and plenty of older ones. Bloomberg has the same vibe."

But Graham said there was hope for Bloomberg especially if Biden can't stop Sanders — and the DNC changing the debate criteria to allow Bloomberg into future debates might be a sign of worry by insiders.

"Watch for Dems to jump on the Bloomberg bandwagon around Super Tuesday," he said.

The New Hampshire debate could also let a dark horse onto the stage depending on the Iowa outcome since a new DNC criteria allows for a candidate with a single Iowa Caucus delegate to be included. Who that candidate is remains to be seen. Lesperance called the provision "an interesting approach," but the debate standard should be less about winnowing the field to bring the primary contests to a close early and more about allowing voters to come to informed decisions.

There was a greater chance of a brokered convention during this election than in recent memory, he said, but added, "It's still unlikely." Turbulence among voters was a bigger wildcard, Lesperance said.

"There's just way too much fluidity to see how things end up," Lesperance said. "Add in the impact of impeachment and you have yet another variable to consider. Finally, I contend that while the focus has been on a divide between progressives and more mainstream Dems, the real divide for voters is over which candidate they believe has the best chance to beat the president. That makes creating team-up opportunities more complicated."

Graham thought there were too many debates this cycle and called them "a waste of time." Instead, he suggested more local debates for local audiences, and forums that don't include all of the candidates.

Graham also doubted there would be a brokered convention.

If the Democrats don't stop Sanders early, "he'll win enough delegates to guarantee that he can't prevent a first-victory by any candidate or he'll win it outright himself," he said.

Burling, who described himself as a "constant worrier," said the "Sander-Warren fights" will wear on Democrats into the next month of primaries.

"Will turnout stay up where we expect it to be or will folks begin to get discouraged?" he asked.

MacDonald, however, said if Biden and Sanders were still duking it out by summer, a brokered convention was "inevitable." If there is a second vote at the convention, "Bernie's chances are over. But Bernie might allay those fears if he teamed up with someone with a patina of moderateness though I've no thoughts on who they think that might be."

The Continued Lack Of Diversity Argument

During the past few weeks, concerns about diversity by Democrats outside of Iowa and New Hampshire have continued to nag the process inside both states.

Iowans are openly worried about their status; Granite State politicos are sloughing it off, relying on a law that allows the Secretary of State to name the date of the first-in-the-nation primary seven days before any other state sets its date.

Some in New Hampshire, including Lesperance, counter the argument and have even gone so far as to say diversity wasn't an issue since neither U.S. Sen. Cory Booker, D-NJ, nor Julian Castro, the former HUD secretary and mayor of San Antonio, Texas (or Gabbard and Patrick, for that matter) were able to rise above low single-digits in the more diverse early states of South Carolina and Nevada, which vote next after Iowa and New Hampshire.

In South Carolina, Booker reached as high as 6 percent in February and October in the RCP average; Gabbard, who is Samoan, peaked at 4 percent in December while Patrick had 1 percent the same month; Castro was barely a blip. In Nevada, Booker never rose above 3 percent with Gabbard never rising above 2 percent.

According to the latest polls averaged on RealClearPolitics.com, Biden has wide leads in both states.

U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris, a Democrat from California of Caribbean descent, was considered a top or middle tier candidate for most of the campaign, including reaching as high as a 16 percent RCP average in Iowa and 13 percent in New Hampshire in July, and 10 percent in Nevada in September.

But after some murky debate performances, her numbers nosedived and the money dried up.

"Donors had other ideas as well, especially after Gabbard exposed Harris as a fraud," MacDonald added.

But all of the controversy also raises the issue of what constitutes diversity in 2020. While most politicos and activists focus on skin color — like the criticism about the last debate, which was considered "too white and too old" — the flip side of the coin is that of the six people on the stage, two were women, two practice Judaism, and one is openly gay, a first for a debate stage this late in the process.

Lesperance, however, challenged the criticism, and said voters in the state had previously been willing to break with old traditions like voting in an entire Congressional delegation made up of women.

"I reject the notion that there's something about New Hampshire that keeps us from considering candidates of color," he said. "The lack of success of these candidates in 2019-2020 is not about their background in my view. It's about the plethora of very good choices Democrats have."

Graham agreed, adding that when Sanders had twice the support from African Americans as Booker or Harris in some states, "It's hard to blame 'reluctant white people' for their failure." He also recently wrote a piece wondering about Warren's commitment to the early states after sending surrogates to both Iowa and New Hampshire who openly criticized the lack of diversity to the voters' faces. U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley, D-MA, Rachael Rollins, the Suffolk County District Attorney in Massachusetts, and Castro, have all raised criticism while campaigning for Warren while ignoring that then-U.S. Sen. Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus (in a squeaker) in 2008 and carried both states in the 2008 and 2012 general elections.

"Telling the voters of New Hampshire and Iowa that they’re too racially insensitive or lacking in judgment to pick the Democratic nominee is pretty insulting, particularly among progressives," Graham wrote. "Why is Liz Warren letting her surrogates make this attack on the trail? (She) is no doubt aware what her high-level surrogates are saying, and she hasn’t rebutted them. That may be because Warren’s own position on New Hampshire’s place in the campaign calendar is shaky at best."

The diversity criticism, MacDonald, added, was misguided. Someone could ask Democrats, he said, "to actually nominate a person of color for Congress before we hear any more complaints about the state being too white" — something Republicans had done in the last three Congressional cycles in New Hampshire.

While the slate for the New Hampshire's Feb. 7 debate won't be finalized until Feb. 6, Yang will be on the stage, having qualified recently for participation, meaning it won't just be old, white people in the debate.

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