Mirsky’s List: Strongest Candidates-President 2020: Polls Exposed

EXETER, NH – This is Attorney David Mirsky reporting from the frontlines of the 2020 Presidential race with my latest impressions of the presidential race, as seen from the ground level here in New Hampshire, home of the First-in-the-Nation Presidential Primary.

I am continuing with my “list on the refrigerator” procedure. You can see the list currently on our refrigerator message board in the picture appearing above. My list is not like the others you will encounter in the national news media or from the latest conventional public opinion polls, and you should note that the opinion polls on the Democratic Presidential Primary Process for 2020 are wrong in one major respect: The polls do not treat “Undecided” as a statistically significant choice.

The vast majority of voters in New Hampshire, those who will vote in the Democratic Presidential Primary in February 2020, have not yet chosen a candidate. Thus, when you read the purported percentages of support for each candidate in these conventional public opinion polls, in truth, you are not reading real numbers.

Consider this: If 80 percent of the voters are undecided, but are not counted in a poll, a candidate who is "polling" at 2 percent right now in a poll that doesn't count the undecided could theoretically jump to 20, 30, 40, or 50 percent, or even more, when all the voters have actually made their choices.

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Regardless of where they stand at present, any candidate who remains in the presidential primary race by the time of the New Hampshire Primary can still win it, and can go on to win the Democratic Nomination and the Presidency.

So much for the polls.

And so I present you with my list on the refrigerator.

My list is based on the constantly incoming information that we receive here in New Hampshire on a daily basis, based on the views of people I know, based on my own impressions, opinions, and ideas about things, my own carefully considered choices, and on my long history of involvement in political campaigns. I write as a New Hampshire political activist, as an attorney, and as an observer and appreciator of the peculiarities of American politics.

So here is my latest List, produced today at around 12:04 P.M., in our kitchen in Exeter:

DEMOCRATS

1. Senator Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey, former Mayor of the City of Newark, New Jersey. For the sake of full disclosure, you should know that I have expressed my support for Cory Booker here on Exeter Patch in an article I posted this past summer. You can refer to that article for my basic view of Senator Booker. I have listed Cory Booker here as Number One because of his potential, and because he is exciting crowds of supporters and potential supporters wherever he goes, in Iowa and here in New Hampshire. Cory Booker has a message of unity, he is inspired principally by the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King and by Dr. King's message of faith in humanity and constructive commitment to the uplifting of all people. To learn what Cory Booker is really all about, you need to watch him on C-Span or attend one of his campaign events and meet him. He is the real deal.

2. Joe Biden, former U.S. Vice President and U.S. Senator from Delaware. You know Joe Biden. He is currently under attack by the current President, for various matters that never happened and do not exist. Joe Biden can and will handle this. The strongest things about Joe Biden are (1) his resilience; (2) his warm personal connection with everyone he meets; and (3) you know him. You don't need to wonder about who Joe Biden is, he is who he says he is: A good man and an honest leader.

3. Amy Klobuchar, U.S. Senator from Minnesota; former Hennepin County Attorney, Hennepin County, Minnesota. Amy Klobuchar is a former prosecutor from the heartland of America. She has a great new TV commercial that played recently, which displays her tough, smart, and upbeat personality. You can see from this TV commercial that we have much more to learn about these candidates. I have placed Amy Klobuchar high on this list because she exudes strength and good judgment.

4. Julian Castro, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Barack Obama, and former Mayor of San Antonio, Texas. Julian Castro is an extremely confident, thoughtful, strong person, who presents himself well on the debate stage as a no-nonsense, serious individual, unafraid of anything or anyone. He is a moving speaker and has executive experience. Nobody will push him around.

5. Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts. A brilliant scholar and lawyer, Senator Warren is currently viewed by conventional reporters as one of the top two candidates in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination (the other being Joe Biden). She is so brilliant that I expect that she has already figured out exactly how to win this.

6. Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont, proponent for Medicare for All, and for income equality in America. Bernie Sanders is currently recovering from a health issue, and will be back soon. You can’t count Bernie Sanders out because he is an exceedingly powerful and strong individual, with an intense devotion to equality, fairness, and to providing universal access to quality health care.

7. Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California, former Attorney General of California, former District Attorney of San Franciso, California. Senator Harris has devoted supporters, and has a very highly skilled campaign staff. If there is an impeachment trial in the U.S. Senate, Kamala Harris will demonstrate her mastery of public communication and courtroom-style cross-examination. Kamala Harris is a strong, sardonic, gifted individual, who has the capacity to break through the large field in a debate, and would be a fearless competitor if nominated.

8. Beto O’Rourke, former U.S. Representative from El Paso, Texas; former City Councilor in El Paso, Texas; strong candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2018, against the Notorious Ted Cruz (who won by a slim margin). Beto O’Rourke has some definite advantages: he speaks clearly and directly, and his answers on the important issues of the day are forthright, humane, and well-reasoned. If given the chance, Beto could become a symbol of youth and creativity on the national scene. He is easy-going and sincere. You could imagine sharing a beer with him, a feature common to other Texas politicians.

9. Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and a former combat veteran who served in the War in Afghanistan. So Pete Buttigieg is a combat veteran, and I understand he worked in the intelligence area, and he is a very intense, well-spoken individual. Pete Buttigieg is the youngest candidate in the race but does not present himself that way because he has obviously gained significant poise and strength from his experience in the military. You get the feeling that he has a lot more to say. Pete Buttigieg appears to be a deeply religious person and a man of great sincerity and vision.

10. Andrew Yang, entrepreneur, lawyer, and founder of Venture for America, a public-spirited company which trains recent graduates and young professionals to work for start-ups in emerging U.S. cities. Andrew Yang is not like anyone else who has ever run for President of the United States. He is running on a platform of providing a universal guaranteed income. He is more of a futurist than a politician, but he is a very clever politician, able to reach out to all different kinds of people. I do not know Andrew Yang, but I do know Steve Marchand, former Mayor of Portsmouth, and a highly intelligent, highly energetic political activist. Mr. Marchand appears to be deeply involved in the Yang campaign. This means that Andrew Yang is serious about campaigning in New Hampshire, and that he has a chance to succeed.

11. Tom Steyer, anti-Trump Impeachment Activist and business mogul. Tom Steyer has been fighting against Donald Trump on TV commercials for the entirety of the Trump presidency. He is a billionaire who does not need to worry about raising campaign contributions. I remember there was one candidate for Governor of New Hampshire a few years back who was able to win the election with virtually zero public knowledge about himself, simply because he had so much money that he could flood the airwaves with his political message. Tom Steyer might be able to do that. Politically, Tom Steyer's views are progressive, and his solutions to our nation's problems are creative.

And so, for now, that is all. Do not take my word for it about these candidates, or about those not mentioned above. You need to get out there and meet the candidates, ask them questions, and you need to go to your Town Hall and register to vote, and you must vote in the New Hampshire Primary in February. (Or if they move it to January, vote in January.)

See you next time.