Month-By-Month Summer Forecast Released For VA

The official start of summer is just around the corner, and while Virginia has already endured more than one brutal heat wave, what kind of weather can residents expect in the months ahead?

While meteorological summer began on June 1, the season officially begins at 4:24 a.m. on June 21. Ahead of this, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released its updated outlook so residents can have an idea of what weather conditions will be like in June, July and August.

NOAA's forecast favors above-normal temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic this summer, while leaning toward equal chances of wetter- or drier-than-normal conditions. However, forecasters say confidence in the outlook remains limited.

NOAA's summer outlook favors above-normal temperatures and equal chances of wetter- or drier-than-normal conditions across the Mid-Atlantic states. (NOAA Climate Prediction Center)

Forecasters can't predict specific temperatures or rainfall probabilities months out, but they can make general predictions on temperature and precipitation trends in a given season.

They base outlooks on several climatological observations, trends and computer models.

El Niño's Impact

A developing El Niño on the horizon and decades-long climate trends influenced NOAA's outlook for June, July and August, according to Brad Pugh, a meteorologist with NOAA's Extended Prediction Division.

"El Niño is likely to emerge soon and there is a 90 percent chance of El Niño conditions during the June through August timeframe," Pugh said.

Pugh said long-term trends toward warmer temperatures and slightly wetter conditions helped shape the forecast.

However, El Niño tends to have its greatest influence on weather patterns during the winter. Historical data from past El Niño summers suggests a tendency toward cooler-than-normal temperatures, which forecasters also considered.

The competing signals are one reason NOAA is approaching the forecast with caution.

"Overall, temperature and precipitation tools offer either weak or conflicting signals," Pugh said.

For Virginia residents, the outlook suggests that temperatures and precipitation will be near normal this summer.

NOAA's forecast offers some encouraging news for areas still dealing with drought conditions. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, most of Virginia is dealing with severe drought, while others are experiencing extreme to exceptional drought conditions, and NOAA's Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for conditions to improve through the end of August.

While forecasters expect the Northeast's most active severe weather period to fall, as usual, in June and July, NOAA does not issue seasonal severe weather outlooks.

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