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Is There a Recession Ahead? John Carney's Fact-Packed Insight & Answer

'Sentiment Surveys Insist U.S. Economy is Teetering into Recession'-Seriously? Hard Data on Housing, Retail Sales, Inflation, and More Hope

"The financial press and sentiment surveys keep insisting that the U.S. economy is teetering on the brink of recession. But hard data tells a different story," wrote John Carney for right-leaning Breitbart. "Economic activity in the U.S. remains robust, even as the media clings to dire warnings from consumer sentiment surveys. The “Recession That Never Happened” is just a politically driven narrative. The real economy is growing, while politically charged sentiment data continues to lag far behind."

Carney's keen report provided specifics.

He pointed to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and a recent analysis from the Bank of America (BOA).

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“Growth looks like it may be moderating a bit. Consumer spending, moderating a bit but still at a solid pace. Unemployment’s 4.1 percent. Job creation most recently has been at a healthy level. Inflation has started to move up now, we think partly in response to tariffs, and there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year. So that’s the hard data. Overall, it’s a solid picture,” Powell said.

“You can’t rely on sentiment surveys to tell you the state of the economy,” Bank of America argued, pointing out that real economic activity continues to hum along despite survey-driven pessimism.

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Carney dove into specific insights. Quoting.

"Housing, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Inflation Are All Improving

Housing Starts Roar Back: February saw housing starts surge 11.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million. That’s a big jump from January’s downwardly revised 1.35 million. Single-family starts rose 11.4 percent to an annualized 1.11 million, while multi-family construction climbed 10.7 percent. Builders are clearly responding to strong demand despite concerns over mortgage rates and supply constraints.

Existing Home Sales Surge: Existing-home sales jumped 4.2 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million, sharply exceeding expectations. Even with rising prices, buyers are coming back into the market, defying claims of economic weakness. The median price rose 3.8 percent year-over-year to $398,400, marking the twentieth consecutive month of price increases.

Industrial Production Forges Ahead: Industrial production rose 0.7 percent in February, more than triple the 0.2 percent increase economists had expected. Manufacturing output jumped 0.9 percent, led by an 8.5 percent rise in motor vehicle and parts production. Mining output also expanded by 2.8 percent, contributing to the overall surge.

Retail Sales Go Ca-Ching: After falling sharply in January, retail sales rose by 0.2 percent in February. More importantly, the “control group” measure of retail sales, which feeds directly into GDP calculations, climbed by a very healthy one percent. Despite gloomy forecasts, consumers are still spending.

Inflation Is Cooling: Inflation indicators suggest progress in taming price pressures. The Producer Price Index was flat in February, while the Consumer Price Index rose just 0.2 percent, the smallest increase since last August. Egg prices, a symbol of last year’s inflation surge, have dropped 15 percent in early March."

The rest of Carney's report is found at this link here. But he's not the only one.

In a response to Gov. Gavin Newsom (CA-D), who appears to be preparing for a run for his party's nomination to be a presidential candidate in 2028, there was this.

After two months in office, despite the hoopla from some that the 'sky is falling' it appears that it is border crossing, egg prices, and inflation that is falling.

As a political independent, the son of supporters of Kennedy Democarts, it has to be said that the Democratic Party today is not the same as the vision of the murdered Kennedy brothers, President John F. Kennedy (D) and Senator Robert F. Kennedy. Award-winning former 17 year CNN reporter Chris Plante who is now an award winning pundit on WMAL and Newsmax, says that those Kennedys would not recognize their party today.

Plante is a former Democrat too.

Things are improving just two months into President Donald J. Trump's (R) 2nd term in office. But left-leaning media, left-leaning activist organizations and often left-leaning activist judges are pushing actions that would - if successful - slow or stop the Trump efforts to return a measure of sanity to the rule of law. More on that in the reports below.

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

If you or someone you know isn't retired or looking ahead to your future career doing whatever, keep in mind the the law of supply and demand applies to employment too. Eliminating illegal immigration, as deportations take hold and accelerate, will tend to cause wages of citizens and legal immigrants to rise.

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

There are many areas of hopefulness. But IMHO, there is more attention that Trump 2.0 needs to do with respect to affordable housing. There is word heard of possible positive news on that front too. But let's see what actually happens, because rumors could be mistaken. Check out the reports that follow that include housing in general, manufactured homes, and research or reports into a range of other topics. Thanks for checking in.

> Lesli Gooch Ph.D.-Award, Coverup, Headfake, Scandal? Rest of the Story (Manufactured Housing Institute linked)

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UPDATE: 1:19 PM ET. Screen capture of the final paragraphs of a follow up with Grok about this article above.L. A. “Tony” Kovach is a publisher who has earned multiple awards in history. He and his family live in a manufactured home on private property in Winter Haven, FL. He is the co-founder of Manufactured Home Living News.com (MHLivingNews.com) and Manufactured Home Pro News.com (MHProNews.com), trade publications serving segments of the manufactured home industry. Having worked in several segments of the manufactured home industry for over 3 decades, Kovach is a widely acknowledged and often praised expert on manufactured housing. ###

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Is There a Recession Ahead? John Carney's Fact-Packed Insight & Answer

'Sentiment Surveys Insist U.S. Economy is Teetering into Recession'-Seriously? Hard Data on Housing, Retail Sales, Inflation, and More Hope

L. A. "Tony" Kovach, Neighbor

Find out what's happening in Lakelandfor free with the latest updates from Patch.

Find out what's happening in Lakelandfor free with the latest updates from Patch.

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