National Association of Realtors and Megan Cerullo: 'First-time Homebuyers are Endangered Species in U.S.'

CBS News' Megan Cerullo reported just days ago that: "First-time homebuyers are an endangered species in the U.S." Among the sources Cerullo linked and cited is the one from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shown in Part I of today's installment of the "Reality Check" series here on this Patch.

More information in Part 2 of this report will reveal that homebuying is under pressure globally, not just in the U.S. That said, there are answers that will also be considered in Part II plus among other linked topics ahead.

Cerullo wrote in part: "Figures from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show that only 24% of housing sales last year were by first-time homebuyers — that's down from 50% in 2010. The typical purchaser is also older than in the past, with an average age of 38, or about 10 years above historical norms.

Such trends reflect the challenges of climbing on the property ladder as home prices hover near record highs, inventory remains low and with mortgage rates at their highest level in years."

Let's note per information NAR's Lawrence Yun, their chief economist in recently reported by MHProNews that cited his recent PowerPoint to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), has said that NAR inventory is rising. So, Cerullo is apparently bit off on that point.

That said, her broader points are mostly correct, but she missed other possible insights found in Part II. It is unknown why Cerullo cited this NAR press release, when others have been published since. Be that as it may, most of the information is recent enough where it is still useful. More lack of affordable housing in the U.S. details ahead.

Part I from the National Association of Realtors (NAR)

Newsroom

First-Time Home Buyers Shrink to Historic Low of 24% as Buyer Age Hits Record High

First-time ($97,000), repeat ($114,300) and typical ($108,800) buyer incomes hit all-time highs

Key Highlights

• A record high 26% of buyers paid cash for their homes.
• Seventeen percent of home buyers purchased a multigenerational home, the highest share ever recorded.
• The median down payment was 18% among all home buyers and 9% for first-time buyers.

WASHINGTON (November 4, 2024) – The first-time homebuyer market share decreased to a historic low of 24% (down from 32% last year), while home buyers’ ages hit all-time highs of 56 years overall (49 last year), 38 years for first-time buyers (35 last year) and 61 years for repeat buyers (58 last year), according to the National Association of Realtors®' 2024 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.1 This annual survey of recent home buyers and sellers – this year tracking transactions between July 2023 and June 2024 – has been NAR's flagship report since it first published in 1981, providing industry professionals insight into detailed homebuying and selling behavior.

“The U.S. housing market is split into two groups: first-time buyers struggling to enter the market and current homeowners buying with cash,” said Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research. “First-time buyers face high home prices, high mortgage interest rates and limited inventory, making them a decade older with significantly higher incomes than previous generations of buyers. Meanwhile, current homeowners can more easily make housing trades using built-up housing equity for cash purchases or large down payments on dream homes.”

The typical home buyer’s median household income for 2023 rose to $108,800 from $107,000 in 2022. First-time buyers had a median household income of $97,000, up from $95,900 the prior year and an increase of $26,000 in the last two years. Repeat buyers had a median household income of $114,300, up from $111,700 the previous year.

The share of married couples increased to 62% of all buyers, with single female buyers seeing a slight rise to 20%. Conversely, the share of single males decreased to 8% and unmarried couples dropped to 6%. In addition, the share of single female first-time buyers jumped by 5%.

Eighty-three percent of recent home buyers identified their ethnicity as White or Caucasian. Seven percent of recent buyers identified as Black/African American, 6% identified as Hispanic/Latino, 4% identified as Asian/Pacific Islander and 3% as some other ethnicity.

Seventy-three percent of recent home buyers did not have a child under the age of 18 in their home – the highest share recorded.

Seventeen percent of home buyers purchased a multigenerational home, the highest share in the data series. The top reasons cited were cost savings (36%), to take care of aging parents (25%), children over the age of 18 moving back home (21%), and children over the age of 18 who never left home (20%).

“As home buyers encounter an unaffordable housing market, many are choosing to double up as families,” explains Lautz. “Cost savings are a major factor, with young adults returning home – or never leaving – due to prohibitive rental and home prices. Meanwhile, elderly parents and relatives are moving in with family members as home buyers reprioritize what matters most to them.”

Real estate agents played a crucial role in the homebuying process, with 86% of all buyers utilizing their services – the highest of all information sources used. Agents were the most useful information source in the home search process.

Eighty-eight percent of home purchases were made through a real estate agent or broker, demonstrating the continued importance of agents in the homebuying process. Nearly 90% of buyers each expressed satisfaction with their agent’s responsiveness, knowledge of the purchase process, honesty and integrity, knowledge of the real estate market and people skills. Eighty-eight percent of home buyers would use their agent again or recommend to others.

In 2024, the median down payments were 18% for all home buyers, 9% for first-time home buyers and 23% for repeat home buyers – the highest down payments for first-time home buyers since 1997 and repeat home buyers since 2003. First-time buyers continue to rely on savings (69%); however, 25% used loans or gifts from friends and family, 21% used financial assets and an all-time high of 7% used inheritances. A record 26% of home buyers paid cash for their homes.

The typical age of home sellers reached 63 years, the highest ever recorded. The share of married couples selling their homes was 69%, an increase from 65% last year, marking the first increase in four years.

For sellers, the most cited reason for selling their home was the desire to move closer to friends and family (23%), followed by home was too small (12%), home was too large (11%) and neighborhood becoming less desirable (10%).

“Family support systems are influencing buying and selling decisions,” said Lautz. “Being close to friends and family is the top reason to sell, while buying a home convenient to friends and family continues to grow in importance. Today’s buyers are less likely to be concerned with their work locations when purchasing, perhaps because of a higher share of older repeat buyers and remote work flexibility remaining a factor.”

Ninety percent of sellers sold with the assistance of a real estate agent, up from 89% last year, and only 6% were for-sale-by-owner sales, an all-time low. Most sellers (87%) said that they would definitely (72%) or probably (15%) recommend their agent for future services.

“Most home buyers and sellers find it valuable to use an agent who is a Realtor® to help them maneuver through the complicated homebuying and selling processes, especially in a challenging housing market,” said NAR President Kevin Sears, broker-associate of Sears Real Estate/Lamacchia Realty in Springfield, Massachusetts. “Realtors® provide critical knowledge and expertise that ensure a successful transaction.”

...

Part II - Additional Information with More Facts-Evidence-Analysis (FEA) and Expert Commentary

In no particular order of importance are the following observations.

1) Many in mainstream media, and candidly for some years often MHProNews did similarly too, have worked under an assumption that people want short news items. Megan Cerullo's report is meant to be read in 2 minutes and is only about 500 words. In fairness, there is only so much that you can say and cover in 500 words.

2) That said, when a reporter is cherry picking information in an effort to get or keep a report to only several hundred words, relevant information is bound to be left out.

3) Again, in fairness, the numbers of reporters has been dwindling steadily. This was previously published by the Pew Research Center that shows the trends from 2008-2019.

Another chart from Pew that covered more years below. More recent graphics largely support that trend.

4) So, there are fewer reporters.

They are trying to cover as much or more news, because the population is growing and the events are growing with a larger population.

That said, the numbers of 'misses' with this CBS News article are too many to detail.

5) For example. CBS News' Cerullo could have mentioned that the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently came to a similar finding as what she reported. In their annual "Priced Out" study, NAHB found that almost 75 percent of the population can't afford to buy a new conventional house.

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

6) Additionally, researcher/authors Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox recently reported that Millennials and Gen Z around the world are struggling with affordable housing. Kotkin and Cox said a 'new feudalism' is rising that is cutting off decades of prior middle-class upward mobility.

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

7) Among the items that Kotkin and Cox cited was this.

"After World War II, the federal government expanded the availability of low-interest loans, notably in the GI Bill, as well as the 1948 Housing Act. These acts and others helped millions buy homes, although with a sad legacy, now thankfully ended, of discrimination against ethnic minorities, notably African Americans. Today, in contrast, the vast majority of growth in suburbia comes from minorities."

They also said this.

"Given the tenuous hold of populist conservatives over government, and their utter powerlessness in many states, a lot depends on changing opinion in the Democratic Party, which was once strongly in favor of expanded home ownership but more recently seems to have abandoned this goal. "

Kotkin and Cox also said: "Both parties can benefit from facilitating more housing construction."

MHLivingNews has probed that topic numerous times including by looking at the HUD research by Pamela Blumenthal and Regina Gray linked below. Blumenthal and Gray said both major parties have for decades talked about, but apparently failed to properly tackle, the known problems and solutions.

https://www.manufacturedhomeli...

8) Kotkin and Cox also said this.

"One promising innovation may be manufactured housing, which has the potential to also speed construction by as much as 50%, according to a 2019 McKinsey & Company report. An even more promising technology may be the use of 3-D printers to build new homes at far lower prices.
Some of these homes may be traditional trailers, although much larger units are also built.

They directly address the cost issue: New mobile homes average around $124,000, while new single-family homes typically cost more than $400,000. Critically, manufactured shipments grew by more than 60% over the past decade and provide the largest source of unsubsidized low-income housing, giving shelter to 21 million Americans."

Note that those researchers used incorrect terminology. Trailer houses, mobile homes, and manufactured housing or manufactured homes are three distinctive phases of the evolution of factory-built housing in the U.S.

That said, Kotkin and Cox are correct to point to the promise and need for more affordable manufactured housing. As this column has factually demonstrated using an array of third-party information, you can't solve the affordable housing crisis without millions of more HUD Code manufactured homes.

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

9) Earlier today, MHProNews posted this report on a topic we plan to look at in the near term. It is a comparison between what the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR) and the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI) have said, written, and done in their respective efforts. It is both sobering and eye opening.

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

10) Copilot and Gemini AI systems have confirmed that MHI leaders have not publicly responded the previously raised concerns cited in the fact check found in the screen capture shown below.

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

11) Reporters and numbers in media can, should, and ought to improve their performance. Because what is shared above are facts per the cited sources. Odds are good that most Americans would find several new pieces of information from the above. That's a sad commentary on the state of media in a so-called information era.

Enough said for today. Thanks for checking in again and for following this "Reality Check" series for this Patch. The good Lord willing, we'll have more insights on a possible range of subjects tomorrow. Related and other topics follows.

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L. A. “Tony” Kovach is a publisher who has earned multiple awards in history. He and his family live in a manufactured home on private property in Winter Haven, FL. He is the co-founder of Manufactured Home Living News.com (MHLivingNews.com) and Manufactured Home Pro News.com (MHProNews.com), trade publications serving segments of the manufactured home industry. Having worked in several segments of the manufactured home industry for over 3 decades, Kovach is a widely acknowledged and often praised expert on manufactured housing. ###

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