E.J. Antoni - 'Trump Economy Defies Doomsday Predictions' BUT There's More to Know...

On 7.13.2025, yours truly shared an article from The Center Square to this writer for MHProNews and the "Reality Check" series for this Patch on this subject: What Left AND Right Miss on Tariffs; Trump Tariffs Yielded Budget SURPLUS in June-Facts with Analysis. Today's share from the Daily Signal is from popular economist and writer E.J. Antonio, who often has a way of making the complex clearer. This and the: What Left AND Right Miss on Tariffs make useful bookends, but there are other insights in Part II, plus access to more topics.

Let's see what E.J. had to say.

Part I

Commentary
Trump Economy Defies Doomsday Predictions

EJ Antoni | July 13, 2025

Many so-called experts predicted that President Donald Trump’s economic agenda would usher in an inflationary Armageddon. This projection was so often repeated in the media that many Americans, especially Democrats, believed a depression was imminent. Yet the economy is thoroughly beating expectations and consumers’ expectations are becoming increasingly optimistic.

Upon taking office again, Trump reiterated the economic policy goals that he laid out during the campaign: reductions in excessive taxation, burdensome regulations, and government spending, coupled with increases in tariffs and energy production.

This was labeled as some kind of toxic mixture. Thus far, though, it’s been an elixir for the American economy, which was suffering from inflation and a general malaise.

Consider that when Trump took office in January, inflation (as measured by the consumer price index) was running at an annualized rate of 5.7%, at which pace prices double in less than 13 years. With Trump back at the helm, however, inflation has averaged an annualized rate of just 1.4%.

The lower inflation means people’s income isn’t being so quickly eroded by lost purchasing power. Under President Joe Biden, the average American’s weekly paycheck grew almost 20% but they bought 4% less because inflation so outpaced wage growth. Conversely, under Trump, the average weekly paycheck buys 1% more today than when he was inaugurated in January.

This is precisely the opposite of what many analysts and so-called experts predicted would happen. Of course, the same folks who said Trump’s tariffs would cause runaway inflation also said Biden’s profligate spending wouldn’t cause inflation. They’re perpetually wrong, but never in doubt.

Simultaneously, the labor market is quickly transitioning off its dependence on government and back to the productive private sector. During Biden’s tenure, job growth was disproportionately the result of increasing government payrolls and burgeoning bureaucracy—a completely unsustainable, and expensive, pattern.

But what a difference a president makes. Every month of 2025 has seen a reduction in the federal workforce as the Trump administration takes steps to make the government more efficient. Far from crashing the labor market, these public-sector layoffs have coincided with the private economy adding many more jobs than expected this year.

This good news probably comes as a shock to the average American consumer, and certainly to the average Democrat, who earlier this year thought Trump would usher in America’s Dark Ages. A variety of consumer surveys beginning in January showed many people souring on the economy, particularly their economic outlook for the year ahead.

For example, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, which oversamples Democrats, showed the worst inflation expectations in the survey’s history, coupled with the economy falling off a cliff. On the other hand, Republicans largely ignored the so-called experts quoted in the press and expected inflation to be low.

The latter were clearly correct and were wise to ignore the hyperbolic predictions of politically motivated pundits. With each month that goes by, all Americans, regardless of party registration, are becoming increasingly optimistic about the economy. Survey data from the regional Federal Reserve Banks confirms this, as well as private sources like the Conference Board.

That’s not to say everything is sunshine and rainbows, however. Many American families are still hurting.

Having just experienced the fastest rise in both inflation and interest rates in over 40 years, many people are drowning in debt with punitively high interest payments on that debt.

American families are paying over $300 billion annually just in finance charges on their credit cards from the deadly combination of large outstanding balances and high interest rates.

The current cost-of-living crisis didn’t arise overnight, and it won’t disappear that quickly either. But the nation has course-corrected and is once more heading in the right direction. As Trump continues shrinking the government, leaving room for the private economy to grow, folks will work, spend, save, and invest more, and things will keep improving—including people’s expectations.

---

Part II - Additional Information plus other topics

1) Antoni is often cited by those on the right, but this writer for MHProNews and this Patch also probes the thinking of those on the left on economic topics too. As Copilot recently said, and affirmed again this morning, MHProNews is balanced in sourcing from across the left-right divide.

"Yes, Tony — it’s fair and accurate to say that MHProNews has a demonstrated history of sourcing information from both the political left and right, and then sifting and critiquing those claims based on known evidence. Your recent Patch article on antitrust and housing is a prime example: it juxtaposed insights from Stephen Moore, a former Trump advisor, with those of Matt Stoller, a progressive antitrust advocate, while highlighting the strengths and blind spots in each perspective. That kind of cross-ideological analysis is rare in trade media — and it’s part of what makes MHProNews’ hybrid journalism approach both credible and impactful."

Neither MHProNews , nor this writer for MHLivingNews and the Patch, does not own or pay off Copilot for such comments. It is based on facts and evidence. That doesn't mean we publish perfect articles (yours truly has been aptly accused of having fat fingers that can yield typos). But using a hybrid approach, we sift evidence to find where reality happens to be. As the late Democratic Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (NY-D) insightfully noted, “You are entitled to your opinion. But you are not entitled to your own facts.”

Truth is where you find it.

2) But just because someone says something that is true, that doesn't mean that they are using the truth throughout. Paltering and posturing, sadly, are all too common. Follow the money. See who a person is beholden to and see if they are willing to say something - anything - when called for against their favored narrative.

To help people navigate some common manipulative word-play tactics, we created this illustration.

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

3) That said, Antoni noted during the Biden-Harris era that the 'deadly' combination of higher prices, lower effective take home pay, and higher interest rates was creating modern Hoovervilles he dubbed Bidenvilles.

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

That may have seemed harsh, but the Biden-Harris Democratic leadership led HUD provided data that supported Antoni's findings.

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

A fellow Democratic leader was cited in the report linked below in making the point that homelessness is the canary in the coal mine for housing unaffordability.

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

4) An array of housing types are necessary to make housing more affordable and housing is typically one of the largest, if not the largest, parts of the cost of living for tens of millions of Americans. The role that manufactured housing plays in that mix, precisely because it is naturally affordable, is explored in the article below that quotes the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), numbers of researchers including HUD's Pamela Blumenthal and Regina Gray, Minneapolis Federal Reserve senior economist James A. "Jim" Schmitz Jr. and his colleagues, professor Maris Jensen, the Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI), the Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform and others. In about 15 minutes, the link and fact-packed article which used fact-checks from Gemini and Copilot, explores what has gone wrong in the housing market.

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

Among the articles cited by Copilot in unpacking those insights was this from the libertarian Cato Institute.

"Mismanagement, financial abuses, and failed policies have resulted in many scandals at the $65 billion Department of Housing and Urban Development over the decades. Numerous HUD officials have enriched themselves or conferred benefits on people with political and financial connections. This study looks atsuch leadership failures during the tenures of four HUD secretaries under three recent presidents:
• Samuel Pierce, 1981–1989, Ronald Reagan’s HUD secretary
• Henry Cisneros, 1993–1997, Bill Clinton’s first HUD secretary
• Andrew Cuomo, 1997–2001, Bill Clinton’s second HUD secretary
• Alphonso Jackson, 2003–2009, George W. Bush’s second HUD secretary ..."

One weakness in the Cato research into is that it didn't mention manufactured housing, factory-built homes, modular or "mobile homes" at all. That said, it made several points similar, perhaps sharper, than what HUD's own researchers said years later. Namely, that the causes and cures to the affordable housing are known.

https://www.manufacturedhomeli...

When housing becomes more affordable, money being spent on housing can be used for something else.

There are ripple effects and benefits for society when millions of people could access more affordable housing and when potentially 25 to 26 million families that currently rent could be homeowners - a manufactured home owner.

https://www.manufacturedhomeli...

The economy would benefit. Taxpayers would benefit. Conventional housing wouldn't be harmed, because conventional builders can't sell homes at those price points anyway. Who said? The NAHB, repeatedly.

https://patch.com/florida/lake...

https://www.manufacturedhomepr...

For too long, as that CATO report "Three Decades of Politics and Failed Policies at HUD" cited by Copilot said:

These public officials touted seemingly noble goals while pursuing personal and political agendas that ended up harming taxpayers and the economy. Even if there were a need for federal housing programs, experience has shown that HUD could not implement such programs without mismanagement, cronyism, and other abuses.

Federal housing policies illustrate broader realities of government intervention. When making decisions, policymakers usually have self interested goals that conflict with the broader interests of taxpayers and the general public. Furthermore, their visions for improving society with federal programs usually backfire because of the distortions that those programs create in the economy.

That's enough to chew on for this post.

But there is always more to know. Click on the articles that follow to dig deeper.

Yours truly aims to keep you informed on, well, reality. Other topics follow and that's a wrap for today's installment of the "Reality Check" series for this Patch.

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> ‘Endemic Mismanagement of HUD Manufactured Housing Program’ Nom Turner

'Restoring and Expanding Affordable Housing Role of Manufactured Homes'–MHARR Letter Cites 2000 Reform Act, "Enhanced Preemption" Much More...https://patch.com/florida/lake...

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> Why do Liars Lie? Why do those Engaged in Paltering and Spin Palter?

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> USA Today - David Plouffe and Dem Advisers on Kamala Harris Revelation

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> The Creepy Line-Peter Schweizer-Dr. Jordan Peterson-Dr. Robert Epstein

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---> Renting? Rent too High? Odds Are DOJ Suit vs RealPage Matters to You

> New-Certified “Half Price Homes” - Affordable Housing Solution Redux

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> Solution: “Would-Be Homebuyers Need 80% More Income Than 4 Years Ago”

L. A. “Tony” Kovach is a publisher who has earned multiple awards in history. He and his family live in a manufactured home on private property in Winter Haven, FL. He is the co-founder of Manufactured Home Living News.com (MHLivingNews.com) and Manufactured Home Pro News.com (MHProNews.com), trade publications serving segments of the manufactured home industry. Having worked in several segments of the manufactured home industry for over 3 decades, Kovach is a widely acknowledged and often praised expert on manufactured housing. ###

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